Trump ratifies Israel’s Golan control

President Trump issues US recognition for Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, in a move that provides Prime Minister Netanyahu an electoral boost, and Israel a strategic and legal advantage.

Background

Israel seized the Golan Heights, a rocky plateau in southwestern Syria, during the 1967 Six-Day War. The western two-thirds of the Golan Heights has since been occupied and administered by Israel, whereas the eastern-third has remained under the control of the Syrian Arab Republic. Israel formally annexed the territory in 1981, with the application of Israeli law, coming to a year-and-a-half after Israel signed a momentous peace deal with Egypt that saw the withdrawal from the Sinai peninsula.

An armistice line was established following the hostilities of 1967. A United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) is stationed in camps and observation posts along the Heights, supported by military observers of the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO). Since the Syrian Civil War, the UNDOF maintains a buffer zone between the nations in order to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire line.

Golan Heights spans about 1,800 square kilometres (690 sq mi). Southern Syria and the capital Damascus, about 60 km (40 miles) north, are clearly visible from the top of the Heights. It gives Israel an excellent vantage point for monitoring Syrian movements and serves as a location for sensitive surveillance equipment. The area is also a key source of water for an arid region. Syria wants a full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 border which would give Damascus control of the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee - Israel's main source of fresh water.

Analysis

US President Donald Trump formally recognised Israel’s 1981 annexation of the Golan Heights by signing a proclamation officially granting US recognition. The move marks a shift in official US policy since the 1967 Six-Day War. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the move, stating that Israel has never had a better friend.

The PM had arrived in Washington on a four-day trip and watched as Mr. Trump signed the official document. However, the PM had to cut short his trip following a rocket that was fired from the Gaza Strip, wounding seven people near Israel’s financial capital of Tel Aviv. Blaming Hamas, Israel launched air strikes in Gaza, before Hamas released a ceasefire statement that Israel did not comment on.

Israel goes to the polls on April 9 and President Trump’s recognition provides PM Netanyahu with a significant electoral boost through this overt display of support that alters decades of US policy. PM Netanyahu has been beleaguered by corruption charges and criticism over his policies relating to Palestine. Current opinion polls place the long-serving PM’s Likud party tied with former Chief of General Staff, Benn Gant’z centrist Blue and White party. The Likud party has traditionally appealed to Israel’s conservative population who advocate a strong position of power against Israel’s list of foes, and the move keeps with the PM’s long-cultivated persona of a strong-man.

The Golan Heights provide Israel with a significant vantage point into the war-torn country of Syria, while also serving as an excellent strategic high-ground, should conflict erupt in the region. ISIL’s impending defeat in Syria creates somewhat of a power imbalance, especially with regards to Iran; the power that Israel believes is its most pertinent existential threat. While Syria continues to be divided by war factions, Israel has made it clear that it will not permit Iran to operate in territory close to its border and has periodically carried out air strikes in Syria against Iranian targets. Recognising the Heights as Israeli territory legitimises any attack against the region as an act of war against Israel’s sovereign territory, providing Israel with a normative defence during a counterattack.

A UN Security Council resolution from 1981 that condemned Israel’s application of domestic law in what it saw as the “occupied Syrian Golan Heights”, was reiterated by UN officials, condemning the new US position. NATO ally Turkey and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas criticised the move. In addition, many European countries, Middle Eastern counties and international organisations issued direct or implied criticism of the move.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Mr. Trump aims to keep PM Netanyahu in office by providing him with an electoral boost while simultaneously staying true to the PM’s image as a hardliner against Israel’s foes. We believe that US recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights sets a dangerous precedent for other such action around the world. We also believe that the move gives Israel legal wiggle room, should an attack occur over the Heights.

Image Courtesy: Tim Say, Kiran George - UNDOF at Mt. Bental