Skip to main content

Is a Trump Impeachment on the Cards?

June 12, 2019 | Expert Insights

Background

Republican President Donald J. Trump was elected as the 45th president of America in November 2016. On December 6th, 2017 during the first year of Trump’s presidency, Democrat Representatives Al Green and Brad Sherman formally introduced a resolution for impeachment. Since the Republican party controlled both the House and the Senate in 2017 and 2018, the resolution did not pass. As soon as Democrats regained control of the House in 2019 after the mid-term elections, impeachment proceedings against Trump continued.

In May 2017, former FBI director James Comey announced that he would be investigating the possibility of collusion between Donald Trump and Russia during the 2016 presidential election. Soon after, Trump fired Comey stating that he was advised to do so by the Department of Justice (DoJ). Following Comey’s dismissal, Donald Trump’s Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, appointed Robert Mueller as Special Counsel to continue the investigation. Mueller’s widespread investigation which concluded in March 2019 resulted in guilty pleas from 34 individuals (including 5 Trump staffers) and 3 companies. A redacted version of the 448 page-long investigation report was made available to the public in April.

Before Donald Trump, both Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon faced the prospect of impeachment during their presidential terms. Clinton’s impeachment resolution did not pass the Senate while Nixon submitted his resignation before the Senate could invoke the article of impeachment.

Analysis

On May 29th, 2019 Special Counsel Robert Mueller announced his resignation at a surprise press conference. “I’m speaking out today because our investigation is complete,” he said. “The attorney general has made the report on our investigation largely public. We are formally closing the special counsel’s office, and as well I’m resigning from the Department of Justice to return to private life... The office’s written work speak[s] for itself.”

In his report Mueller concluded that he could not charge the Trump administration for conspiring with the Russian government to influence the 2016 election although he notes several interactions which point to collusion if not conspiracy. Collusion, however, is a legally ambiguous term and cannot lead to concrete charges being levied against the incumbent president. The Mueller Report also outlines ten separate instances that could implicate Donald Trump under “Obstruction of Justice” but DoJ policy prevents a sitting president from being charged with a federal crime. In a statement, Mueller suggested that while he was unable to find Trump guilty in his investigations, he does not completely exonerate Trump. “The constitution requires a process other than the criminal justice system to formally accuse a sitting President of wrongdoing”, he said.

Democrats have interpreted Mueller’s statement as an invitation to get the ball rolling on impeaching Trump, with more than 50 House Democrats and 1 Republican calling for the launch of an impeachment inquiry. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is proceeding with caution, encouraging her colleagues to be patient."We know exactly what path we’re on. We know exactly what actions we need to take.”, she says. “And while that may take more time than some people want it to take, I respect their impatience. It’s a beautiful thing and it’s important to our country."

But patience requires time, and the congressional calendar indicates that time is a luxury that law-makers might not possess. With the 2020 presidential elections around the corner, and Trump seeking re-election, the decision to proceed with impeachment is extremely time sensitive. If the House does not begin a formal impeachment inquiry by fall 2019, the chances of impeachment proceedings reaching a definitive conclusion are slim.

Counterpoint

Amidst rampant calls for the impeachment of Donald Trump, many believe that it is not an effective solution. The argument can be made that if Trump gets impeached he will be succeeded by Vice President Mike Pence, and this might not be the result that Democrats are seeking. Besides this, if Trump is actually guilty of obstruction of justice, he should be formally tried in the court of law. For this to happen, the matter of impeachment must be handled with sensitivity,

Assessment

Our assessment is that unless a formal impeachment inquiry is initiated within the next 3-4 months, it is unlikely that the impeachment will go through. We believe that there are many considerations to be taken into account when it comes to impeaching an American President. If Trump is impeached, the effects will be felt all over the world and there is potential for global economic and political instability. The transition period might lead to declining faith in the American market which could possibly lead to a recession. Under Donald Trump, the American economy has experienced sustained economic growth with unemployment rates reaching historical lows. Despite the ongoing trade wars with Mexico and China, American stock markets have remained stable but if impeachment proceedings begin, we don’t think that the markets will remain stable.

We predict that the outcome of an impeachment inquiry won’t result in President’s trump impeachment because the decision to impeach a president requires a nation-wide consensus. There is currently only one House Republican in favor of Trump’s impeachment – Congressman Justin Amash. Polls indicate that even Democrats are split over whether investigations should continue or the impeachment process should begin. We think that while further investigation might eventually increase public support for impeachment, it would be time and resource consuming - this might interfere with important government business.