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Theresa May’s plan is failing

January 16, 2019 | Expert Insights

Theresa May’s last-ditch attempt to shore up her Brexit deal appeared doomed, as Conservative Eurosceptic MPs threatened to humiliate the UK prime minister and plunge Britain’s future relationship with Europe into doubt.

Background

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.

PM Theresa May’s leadership in the negotiations has been heavily criticised. She has been unable to form a consensus within the Parliament, or even her own party, for the course of Brexit. Her “directionless” leadership has not convinced most of her peers in Westminster and she was challenged by a no-confidence motion in early December 2018, which she narrowly won.

Despite her best efforts, the British parliament is not accepting the proposed Brexit agreement. Irrespective of whether they arrive on a deal or not, the UK is officially set to leave in March 2019.

Analysis

After pleading with MPs to take a “second look” at her EU withdrawal deal, Mrs May warned Tory Brexiters that if they voted against her in the upcoming vote on the 15th of January, they could end up losing Brexit altogether in a second EU referendum.

However, Mrs May’s appeals — coupled with an eleventh-hour diplomatic initiative by EU leaders — failed to secure the sea change that would be required at Westminster to save the deal from a crushing defeat.

Eurosceptics claimed that an unlikely alliance of Tory Brexiters, the Democratic Unionist party and MPs from Labour and other opposition parties would inflict a defeat on Mrs May of about 100 votes in the 650-seat chamber.

There was a gathering mood of impending disaster in Downing Street, with some allies of the prime minister claiming the vote could be lost by 200 votes or more.

Environment secretary Michael Gove, on Tuesday morning, declined to predict the result of the vote. “I don’t know whether or not we’ll win, I’m not an astrologer,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.

He reiterated Mrs May’s warning about what defeat might mean. “If people do not vote for the government this evening, we face either a no-deal Brexit, or worse, no Brexit at all,” he said, adding a quote from TV show Game of Thrones: if Mrs May is defeated “in the words of Jon Snow, ‘winter is coming’.”

Only a handful of Eurosceptic Conservative critics of Mrs May’s deal publicly declared they would switch sides, while Gareth Johnson, a government whip, quit opposing the deal, leaving the whips office clinging to the hope that abstentions would help staunch the loss.

Mrs May is expected to make a statement immediately after the vote and is likely to pledge to go back to Brussels to try to win legally binding concessions to ensure that the Irish backstop would only be temporary. Many Brexiters say the measure, which is intended to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, would “trap” the UK in a customs arrangement with the EU.

One senior minister said Mrs May would be under pressure to announce immediately that Britain would not leave the EU on March 29 without a deal, in an attempt to head off a gathering mood of a public and business alarm.

There would also be pressure for Mrs May to delay Britain’s departure by asking for an extension of the Article 50 divorce process, while MPs will demand a series of indicative votes to test support for alternatives to the prime minister’s deal.

Counterpoint

The prime minister’s aides argued that if MPs refused to accept the backstop, it would create an unstable political environment. Both sides would have no choice but to explore alternative ways to maintain a “soft” border (unregulated border).

The prime minister is planning to make a final appeal to the EU for “political and legal” guarantees that the backstop is temporary after her expected defeat next Tuesday and before the second vote on her revised deal in late January.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the EU is not willing to renegotiate on the proposed exit deal as they stand to gain from it more than the UK. We believe that PM May is now fighting not only for a fair Brexit deal but also for her own political survival. We also feel that the rising disagreements within the Conservative Party may lead to a new Brexit Referendum, an idea which is supported by most members of the House of Commons.