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Taiwan and China ‘will be unified’: Xi Jinping

January 4, 2019 | Expert Insights

The Chinese President, Xi Jinping asserted that Taiwan “must be unified, will be unified” with China as a rebuke to President Tsai Ing-wen's earlier statement on how her people wanted to maintain self-rule and develop closer ties with the US.

Background

Taiwan, home to twenty-three million people, is an island off the southern coast of China that has been governed independently from mainland China since 1949. Beijing and Taipei sharply disagree on the island’s status. The PRC asserts that there is only “one China” and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of it. Beijing says Taiwan is bound by an understanding reached in 1992 between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) political party then ruling Taiwan.

Chinese President Xi has emphasised the need for Taiwan to adhere to the “One China” principle. He referred to Taiwan’s independence forces as being “the biggest hindrance for the peaceful development of the cross-strait ties [and the] biggest threat of the cross-strait stability.”

Despite the controversy that surrounds Taiwan, the region itself is economically robust, and it is one of the biggest traders in Asia. It is a leader in the field of computer technology. The most influential friend of Taiwan in world politics is the USA as they have supported them for years while also adhering to the “One China” policy.

Analysis

President Xi Jinping urged the people of Taiwan to accept that the country "must and will be" reunited with China. He made these remarks in a speech that marked 40 years since the beginning of positive ties between Taiwan and China. This statement comes as a sharp rebuke to President Tsai Ing-wen, who said that her people wanted to maintain self-rule and are developing closer ties with the US.

President Xi added, “Chinese people do not fight other Chinese,” and said that Bejing would take the “necessary measures” against foreign interference and “a small number of Taiwanese independence activists and separatist activities”.

President Xi iterated that “independence will only bring hardship" and that unification is "an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people".

President Tsai said that orderly exchanges should be carried out between the two governments and that Taiwanese people oppose one country, two systems set up. She firmly stated: “China has to face the fact that the Republic of China [Taiwan] exists”. President Tsai also said that they are willing to engage in talks to resolve the issue, however, as a democratic nation, discussions or negotiations on political issues must be “undertaken with the authorization and supervision of the people of Taiwan and must proceed across the strait under the government-to-government model”.

October 2019 would mark the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party’s takeover of China, an occasion that President Xi will utilise to harden his position as a leader.  after repealing the presidential term limits last year. Many analysists agree that the power to rule China for life through the unification of Taiwan is a strategy that is likely to be adopted by President Xi to rule with a more nationalist approach.

The "One Country, Two Systems" model is the principle by which Hong Kong was transferred from British to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, maintaining the city's limited democracy, economic system and political freedoms under Chinese rule. This Hong Kong model, for many years, has been seen as a model that can be adopted for Taiwan as well.

According to Lev Nachman, a Taiwan specialist and PhD student in Political Science at the University of California Irvine, President Xi's call to Hong Kong as the One Country, Two Systems experiment "shows what an ideal 'unification' looks like from Beijing's perspective: put Taiwan in a position that allows some autonomy still, but slowly erode it until it is retaken completely”.

President Xi also emphasised and asserted an increase in pressure on Taiwan’s pro-self-rule government by stating its right to use military force against any foreign intervention in “domestic politics”.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the continuous resistance to unification will result in a deadlocked political crisis. We believe that President Xi’s vision of China relies on him resolving the problems arising from Taiwan. We also feel that his success in resolving this matter could boost his political heft as a leader of one of the most advanced countries in the world. We also believe that his speech is perhaps a warning to the US to adhere to the 'One China policy'.