Russo-Kazakh cooperation to grow

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakhstan’s new president discussed boosting political and military cooperation as the two leaders met after the shock resignation of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Background 

Kazakhstan and Russia are both founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and are additionally part of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Both also founded the Eurasian Economic Union with Belarus. Following the collapse of the USSR, the issue of nuclear weapons was central to diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, the West and the broader international community. 

In recent years, Kazakhstan has attempted to balance ties between both sides by selling petroleum and natural gas to its northern neighbour at artificially low prices, allowing heavy investment from Russian businesses, and concluding an agreement over the Baikonur Cosmodrome while simultaneously assisting the West in the War on Terror.

Washington and Astana have traditionally enjoyed a close relationship. The United States was the first country to recognize Kazakhstan's independence. The United States opened its embassy in Almaty in January 1992 and then relocated to Astana in 2006.

The United States was a critical player in assisting Kazakhstan to get rid of its strategic nuclear weapons stockpile and dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure between 1991 and 1996 through the provision of Nunn-Lugar Comprehensive Threat Reduction (CTR) assistance.

Analysis 

The Nursultan Nazarbayev administration had tried to balance relations with Russia and the United States by sending petroleum and natural gas to its northern neighbour at artificially low prices while assisting the U.S. in the War on Terror. Kazakhstan is a member of the United Nations, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (which it chaired in 2010), North Atlantic Cooperation Council, Commonwealth of Independent States, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and NATO's Partnership for Peace program. Kazakhstan established a customs union with Russia and Belarus, transformed into the Eurasian Economical Community then in 2015 into the Eurasian Economic Union. President Nazarbayev has prioritized economic diplomacy into Kazakhstan's foreign policy.

Kazakhstan has a "multi-vector" foreign policy, i.e. a triangulation between the major powers of Russia, China and the US. Kazakhstan has called for “intra-regional integration in Central Asia” and international integration of the region.

Kazakhstan’s new president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has paid his first foreign visit to Russia, describing the trip as a sign of “continuity” in the two countries’ close cooperation. “I will continue the strategic course to strengthen comprehensive dialogue between our countries,” Tokayev told Putin.

Kazakhstan’s veteran leader, Nazarbayev, who had ruled the energy-rich Central Asian nation since before it gained independence with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, announced his sudden resignation last month.

Nazarbayev, 78, has been known for careful diplomacy that privileges key partners Russia and China while maintaining cordial ties with the West. “We propose moving to new forms of cooperation,” Putin told reporters after the talks.

“I mean first and foremost building a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan using Russian technologies,” he added. Kazakhstan, the world’s biggest uranium producer, has been discussing the construction of its first nuclear power plant with foreign powers including Russia.

Last year, Russia started building a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan, the Central Asian country’s first. Putin said the two countries’ military cooperation was growing, adding that Russia trained Kazakh military experts.

The 65-year-old Tokayev said the two leaders discussed assembling civil helicopters and establishing maintenance centers to repair military equipment.

Nazarbayev has the constitutional status of “Leader of the Nation” as well as a lifetime position as chief of the security council and will retain a decisive role in decision-making.

Tokayev was previously the leader of the senate, where he was succeeded by Nazarbayev’s daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, triggering talk of an eventual dynastic succession.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Kazakhstan is a major US partner in the regional which helps in stopping the proliferation of nuclear weapons to radical actors in Central Asia. We believe that President Tokayev’s decision to meet President Putin as his first international visit is a sign of Kazakhstan’s intention to pivot away from the US’s sphere of influence.

Image Courtesy: Kremlin.ru

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