Russian warship

On 23 June 2017, two Russian warships and a submarine in the Mediterranean fired missiles at ISIS targets in Syria. The Turkish and Israeli military were informed of the missile launches through communication channels but the United States had not been kept in the loop.

From Monday, Russia suspended its communication channel with the US after a US jet shot down a Syrian warplane last week and Moscow has since accused Washington of failing to issue a warning.

Sources within the Russian ministry said in a statement that Russia's Admiral Essen and Admiral Grigorovich warships and the Krasnodar submarine in the eastern Mediterranean fired six Kalibr missiles at command centres and weapons stores in Syria's Hama region.

The beginning- 2014

In mid-June 2014, Iran, started flying drones over Iraq, and, Iranian soldiers were in Iraq fighting ISIL. Simultaneously, the US ordered a small number of troops to Iraq and started flying crewed aircraft over Iraq.

In July 2014, Iran sent Sukhoi Su-25 aircraft to Iraq, and Hezbollah purportedly sent trainers and advisers to Iraq to monitor ISIL's movements. In August 2014, the US and Iran separately began a campaign of airstrikes on ISIL targets in Iraq. Since then, fourteen countries in a US-led coalition have also executed airstrikes on ISIL in Iraq and in Syria.

Analysis

The first time a US warplane has taken down a manned aircraft since 1999. The missiles caused tensions following Sunday's rare air-to-air encounter between a Syrian Su-22 fighter and two US Navy Super Hornets in the skies over Syria. The incident took place after a series of clashes between pro-regime troops and the US-backed anti-ISIS group, the Syrian Democratic Forces just south of Tabqah, Syria.

The regime soldiers, equipped with tanks, artillery and technical vehicles, were advancing on the SDF position, forcing the coalition to use the de-confliction hotline with the Russians in an attempt to turn the regime troops back.When that proved unsuccessful, coalition aircraft performed.

Assessment

Our assessment is that, ISIL is fast losing territory both in Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. However, this could also be setting up the stage for a larger confrontation between US and the Russia. With both nations on the opposing sides of the conflict in Syria, any escalation could lead to an all-out war between the two of the bigger military powers in the world. It’s an outcome most would want to avoid given its catastrophic implications.