Russia, NATO seek strategic advantage

Russia has increased its armed deployment amidst US -EU sanctions, demilitarization treaty withdrawals and the fifth anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea.

Background

The European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) is an Obama administration directive that seeks to address threats posed by Russia towards NATO allies especially against short and medium-range ballistic missile threats. Four phases were outlined in order to enhance the ability of counter-measures, especially against ballistic missile threats.

The Aegis Combat System is an American weapons system manufactured by Lockheed-Martin that provides air and fleet defense against enemy aircraft and cruise missiles. Initially developed for the US Navy, the Aegis system was modified to the Aegis Ashore system as its land-based variant. As the nucleus of Phases ll and lll of the EPAA, the system incorporates land-based versions of the deckhouse, AN/SPY-1 radar, the Mark 41 Vertical Launching System (Mk 41 VLS) and Standard Missile-3 interceptors used on Aegis ships. The first two planned Aegis Ashore sites are at Deveselu, Romania and Redzeikowo, Poland. The site in Romania was declared operational in 2016.

The INF Treaty between Russia and the US eliminated all nuclear and conventional missiles, as well as their launchers, with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (310–620 mi) (short-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range). The US currently holds that Russia has violated the treaty,  a position augmented by unanimous NATO support. Russia in return claims that the US violates the treaty because the Mk 41 VLS system allows the system to launch cruise missiles.

Analysis

On March 18, 2019, the head of the Russian Federation Council’s Committee for Defense and Security, Viktor Bondarev stated “The deployment of American missile defense systems in Romania came as a major challenge, in response to which the Russian Defense Ministry made the decisions to deploy long-range missile carrying bombers Tupolev Tu-22M23 at the Gvardeyskoye airbase” in Crimea. 

Washington views the Aegis Ashore defense system as a shield in defending both the America and Europe from “rogue states,” especially Iran. Moscow, for its part, perceives the deployment of the weapon system as a move aimed at softening Russia’s nuclear deterrent. The location of both Aegis Ashore systems in Europe seems to confirm Russia’s trepidation for they are positioned in countries that border Russia (Poland) or in a nation that shares a maritime boundary with a Russian-administered territory such as Crimea (Romania).

US officials have stated that although Washington does not intend to use the shield against a future Russian threat, it would continue to develop the capacity of the system. Russia’s formal suspension of the INF treaty, and American departure from the same, may yield a recalibration of official anti-missile efforts from a Middle Eastern threat to Russia. On March 18, NATO released a statement condemning Russian actions and voiced concerns about “Russia’s efforts and stated plans for further military build-up in the Black Sea region.” A Pentagon spokesperson said that it was noting movements on NATO’s eastern flank and “posturing as appropriate,” without explicitly speaking to Russian claims of Tu22M23 bombers in Crimea. 

With the explicit rationale of countering America’s Aegis Ashore system, a stationary weapons platform, Russia has deployed its long-range bombers in a forward position that provides the capability of direct action against NATO’s assets.Tu22M23 strategic bombers are nuclear-capable delivery systems and are aimed at securing Russia’s front-line defenses. Russia has also stationed its Iskandar missile system in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave bordering Poland. The addition of these supersonic bombers into the calculus is a part of a tactic by President Putin to respond to American deployment in kind. The move comes amidst a new round of US and EU sanctions “in response to Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine.” Crucially, the deployment comes on an important normative occasion; Russia’s fifth anniversary of its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Russia’s deployment of strategic bombers in Crimea is geared at portraying its dominance over the Black Sea region during a normatively important time. We believe that the deployment is also to provide Russia with a number of options against what it perceives to be a NATO threat. We believe American forces will continue to apply pressure against Russia, legitimized by what it calls INF treaty violations. Once the treaty is discontinued, the US is likely to publicly counter Russian deployment by deploying strategic weapons of its own in Europe.