Return of Neo - Ottamanism

Turkey is emerging as the leader of a new Middle East bloc with support from Russia and Iran.

Background

The Ottoman Empire historically known in Western Europe as Turkey was a state that controlled much of Southeast Europe, Western Asia and North Africa between the 14th and early 20th centuries. At the beginning of the 17th century, the empire contained 32 provinces and numerous vassal states. Some of these were later absorbed into the Ottoman Empire, while others were granted various types of autonomy during the course of centuries. The Empire's defeat and the occupation of part of its territory by the Allied Powers in the aftermath of World War I resulted in its partitioning and the loss of its Middle Eastern territories, which were divided between the United Kingdom and France. 

Modern Turkey was founded in 1923 from the remnants of the defeated Ottoman Empire by Mustafa KEMAL

Analysis

Ankara is turning into a major regional player with its own agenda, ideology and allies. The key players in the anti-Iranian group are pro-American: Arab states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Israel. 

The war in Syria unified this group with Turkey and its allies starting in 2011, in shared opposition to the Iranian-backed dictator Bashar Assad.When rebel-held parts of Aleppo fell to pro-Assad forces in December, 2016, the Syrian war effectively ended along with the united front against Iran. Turkey instead began to focus on containing Kurdish militias in northern Syria and forging a partnership with Russia, Iran and Assad. It no longer views Iran as an adversary, but as a rival or, sometimes, a partner.

Qatar has relied on Turkey, which maintains a military base in that country, for support against the boycott. Qatar also needs to maintain cordial relations with Iran because those countries share a natural gas field that provides Qatar with its huge per capita income. Qatar and Turkey also back the regional Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement, and its support for those organizations, including Hamas, was a major cause of the boycott. Turkey and Qatar are growing closer to Iran, Hamas is renewing its Iranian ties.

Turkey has not hidden its growing ambition to revive the dominance that the Ottoman Empire enjoyed over much of the Islamic world. At a recent rally, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu declared, “We are not only just Turkey but also Damascus, Aleppo, Kirkuk, Jerusalem, Palestine, Mecca and Medina.” Turkish government maps show their spheres of influence extending to into Saudi Arabia and down to Basra, Iraq.

 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “Turkey is the only country that can lead the Muslim world.” That's a direct rejection of the implicit claim of Saudi Arabia and the explicit claim of Iran to global Islamic leadership.

Turkey was in the pro-American group, along with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Israel, when a civil war erupted in Syria in 2011. Washington’s support for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the fight against Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria led to Turkey drifting away from the pro-American bloc. Turkey sees the YPG as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and intends to limit its territorial gains in northern Syria.  Turkey is no longer a U.S. partner in the Middle East and has an agenda that clashes with the interests of the U.S. and its Israeli and Arab allies. This involves developing alternatives to the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey and cutting back on military cooperation and supplies, especially given Turkey’s provocative determination to purchase Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.

Counterpoint

Turkey's economy fell into its first recession in a decade at the end of last year.  The economy was battered by a 30 percent slide in the value of the lira brought on by concerns over a diplomatic spat with the United States and central bank independence. Human-rights abuses are expanding since the failed coup which involved many elite Turkish groups — the military, the judiciary, journalists and academics, among others — in addition to peaceful Kurds. It is conceivable that the increasing authoritarianism will wane of the nation.

Assessment

Our assessment is that it is evident that the Arab world has changed. We feel that Turkey is returning to re-establish its lost glory. It can be noted that the Turkish military bases in Azerbaijan, Northern Cyprus, Iraq, Qatar, Somalia, Syria and Kuwait bears witness not only of its regional ambitions but its capacity to follow up with application. It is likely that Israel and Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt not only have to deal with expanding Iranian influence, but also face a Sunni Islamist alliance led by Turkey and financed by Qatar.

Image Courtesty- Dosseman