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Race for Tech Holy Grail

March 11, 2023 | Expert Insights

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming ubiquitous, with tools like ChatGPT poised to make astounding disruptions. Not surprisingly, there is a mad race for supremacy on this and other cutting-edge critical technologies between the U.S. and China.

Western fears of losing out on the race are well founded; A U.S. Department of Technology-funded study has concluded China's technological superiority as "sometimes astonishing." A report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) clearly shows China leading the globe in essential technology fields, such as defence, space, artificial intelligence, and robotics.

China's lead should not surprise anyone, least the West. For decades it was clear as crystal that Beijing was investing billions of dollars in policy action focused on tech talent and the importation of foreign knowledge, largely aided by western experts paid handsome salaries.

Brought face to face with the prospect of its technological lead that it had enjoyed since the 19th Century, the West is striking back, resulting in trade restrictions and a ban on tech exports. But is it the classic question of closing the barn doors after the horses have bolted?

Background

China, according to ASPI research, has achieved significant technological advances and has become a leader in numerous fields, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and aerospace technology. China's leadership in these fields is attributed to several factors, such as its investment in research and development, its ability to attract top people from around the world, and its emphasis on long-term planning and strategy.

On the other hand, Western governments have failed to keep pace by investing more in research and development. This has resulted in the technological gap with China. The history of warfare has proved time and again that technological superiority is a war-winning factor-Mughal cannon against Indian elephants, British machine guns against Zulu impis and the atomic bombs against the bushido spirit of the Imperial Japanese Army! The significance of technology in creating future power centres and influence cannot be ignored and emphasises the need for liberal democracies to maintain a vigilant and proactive stance towards innovative tech parity, if not superiority.

Since, in the mast moving tech landscape, a single country cannot achieve everything, a collaborative effort between like-minded democracies is being urged to utilise technology transparently and in a manner beneficial to all humankind.

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Analysis

China's technological dominance could have substantial geopolitical repercussions, as it could lead to a situation in which one or two nations dominate developing industries. In turn, this might inhibit innovation, cause economic imbalances, and even undermine global security.

The US-China tech war has become a defining geopolitical problem of the 21st Century, with huge economic and strategic ramifications for both nations and the rest of the world. This rivalry is fundamentally about dominance in developing technologies that will affect the global economy in the following years. For instance, the United States has placed limitations on the transfer of specific technologies to China, citing fears that these technologies will be used for military reasons. In order to lessen its reliance on foreign suppliers, China has made substantial investments in building its technological capabilities. The digital war has also exacerbated tensions between the United States and China, contributing significantly to the deterioration of their overall relationship. This might have far-reaching geopolitical ramifications, especially if other nations are forced to take sides or if it leads to heightened tensions and instability in critical regions like Asia.

Both the United States and China are investing extensively in cutting-edge technology such as artificial intelligence, robots, 5G, and others. Whichever nation gets the upper hand in these domains will have substantial economic growth and competitive advantage. This competition has also spurred a rush to construct the digital infrastructure required to support new technologies, including high-speed networks and data centres.

The EU has made significant investments in technology and innovation through initiatives such as the Horizon Europe programme, which aims to promote research and innovation in crucial fields such as health, digital, and green technologies. The EU has also taken steps to promote the development and adoption of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G networks, as well as policies and regulations designed to ensure that these technologies are developed and used in an ethical and socially beneficial manner. Yet, the EU faces numerous obstacles in the form of rivalry from other major nations, such as the United States and China, as well as fragmentation and a lack of cooperation among member states. The EU is frequently criticised for being slower to develop and accept new technology than other regions, such as China and the United States.

India View

India has made significant investments in technology and innovation and has emerged as a major player in several vital fields, including information technology, telecommunications, and biotechnology. India has also promoted laws and projects designed to encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, such as the Digital India initiative, which aspires to turn the nation into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy. Yet, India still confronts hurdles in infrastructure, education, and research and development, which could hinder its capacity to compete in developing industries with countries such as China and the United States. In the coming years, India is expected to play a key role in the global technological competition, and its success in this sector might have substantial ramifications for the nation's economic growth and geopolitical clout. The signing of the U.S. -India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), a land mark event that would enable both countries to jointly look at how critical technology is designed, developed, governed and used, "shaped by shared democratic values and respect for universal human rights."

Assessment

  • The digital war is also about geopolitical influence and national security, in addition to economic dominance. Technology has become the latest arena for superpower rivalry and has the potential to turn ugly. The unfortunate part of this faceoff is that it is challenging for other major powers to remain neutral. Hence, the potential to trigger a significant conflagration across the entire spectrum of human conflict.
  • The ripple effects are impacting every other country. The United States has placed limitations on the transfer of some technologies to China out of fear that they could be used for military purposes or to damage American interests. Countries in Europe and Asia Pacific that were feeding China-based supply chains for high tech mass consumed items like electronics are caught in the middle and stand to lose economically.
  • Every nation will have to chart its way through this minefield with extreme caution and tact. Policymakers and stakeholders must address the conflict with a comprehensive understanding of its ramifications and risks. A balance must be established between fostering innovation and competition, protecting national security interests, and avoiding the escalation of hostilities.