Pyongyang rebuilds rocket launch facility?

North Korea has begun rebuilding work on a satellite rocket launchpad and engine test site, in an ominous sign about its attitude toward negotiations on denuclearization.

Background 

The relationship between the US and North Korea has always been fractious. During the war between North and South Korea in 1950, US forces successfully intervened on behalf of South Korea.

The North Korean nuclear program has been a source of concern for the US and the international community for decades. North Korea has remained an isolated nation and its nuclear program has especially been a concern for the international community. In 2017, North Korea has launched 23 missiles in the course of 16 tests. In November 2017, North Korea after seemingly two months of silence tested its most potent missile yet. The Hwasong-15 missile reached an unprecedented height of almost 4,500 kilometres (2,800 miles). The Hwasong-15 is a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile. This represents a serious escalation in the stability of the Korean peninsula.

Trump has taken an aggressive stance while countering North Korea. In 2017, he said that North Korea “will be met with fire and the fury like the world has never seen.” North Korea responded by announcing that plans were underway for it to strike Guam, a US territory. Both Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump were locked in an extended war of words in 2017, with both threatening wars.

2018 saw an unprecedented change in the relation between the two countries as Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met in Singapore for the first bilateral summit. They followed up their initial engagement with another summit in late February 2019, held in Hanoi, Vietnam. 

Analysis 

The rebuilding work at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station began sometime between Feb. 16 and March 2, according to satellite imagery, meaning it began either just before or immediately after the breakdown of a summit meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi on Feb. 28.

The site, also known as Tongchang-ri, is billed as a space launch center. North Korea had said it was being dismantled and had promised to allow in international inspectors to verify that process, in a move widely cited as a sign of its good faith.

In Hanoi, Trump said Kim had promised not to resume nuclear and missile tests. In that context, any move by North Korea to launch a rocket — and pass it off as a peaceful space-related activity — would probably be seen as provocative.

“Given how much has been done at this site, it looks like more than a couple days’ worth of activity,” said Jenny Town, managing editor of 38 North, a website devoted to analysis of North Korea. “It’s hard to say if it happened immediately after the summit and they just rushed everything — I guess it’s possible — but it’s more likely that it started just before.”

Tongchang-ri is North Korea’s largest missile engine test site. Work to dismantle it began shortly after denuclearization negotiations with the United States began, but stalled from August of last year. Now it has gone into reverse.

In another sign that positions may be hardening, White House national security adviser John Bolton warned that the United States may tighten sanctions if North Korea fails to denuclearize. Bolton’s comments came before the news about the satellite launch station.

“If they’re not willing to do it [denuclearization], then I think President Trump has been very clear. They’re not going to get relief from the crushing economic sanctions that have been imposed on them and we’ll look at ramping those sanctions up, in fact.”

Satellite launches have been contentious. In 2012, North Korea promised a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests in return for food aid. But the agreement with the Obama administration soon broke down after Pyongyang launched a satellite using ballistic missile technology that the United States deemed in breach of United Nations sanctions.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Pyongyang could be rebuilding their facilities in retaliation for a failed second summit with President Trump. We believe that North Korea is reconstructing its facilities as a negotiation tactic to force the US on compromising on its strict de-nuclearization demand and agreeing to lift the economic sanctions.