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Pro-EU parties to control European Parliament

June 4, 2019 | Expert Insights

Background

The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of 28 European states. It primarily institutes a single internal market through a standardised system of regulations that apply to all member states. It also enacts legislation relating to justice and home affairs, in addition to developing common policies on regional development. 

The European Parliament (EP) is one of three legislative institutions of the EU. Along with the Council of the European Union, the EP amends and approves proposals by the European Commission. The European Commission is the EU’s executive and the only institution that can propose legislation, including the EU budget. EU citizens directly elect the 751 Members of the EP (MEPs) for a five-year term through proportional representation. MEPs are elected on a national basis, although they typically group with members who have similar political leanings. 

A wave of secessionist sentiment has recently gripped the EU. Britain has sought to leave the grouping, while nationalist, populist movements have swept across the continent. These populist parties have rallied against the influx of foreigners into the EU, seeking to rein in the power of the grouping, which has welcomed migrants. These parties dislike the relationship between centrist groups that have dominated EU politics since direct elections began 40 years ago.

Analysis

The EU recently conducted bloc-wide elections to select Members of the European Parliament. The polls had the highest voter turnout in two decades. Mainstream EU parties are expected to hold their ground against populists. Results indicate that pro-EU liberals and Greens across the bloc were to secure the most significant gains, dispelling fears of a populist surge.

Anti-establishment, eurosceptic and populist parties are expected to win approximately 29% of the seats, less than the outgoing parliament. Analysts believe this performance is due to a failure to work together. 

There are exceptions to the EU-wide trend that rejected populism. In France, President Emmanuel Macron had characterised these elections as a choice between those who were for the EU and those who were against the bloc. His party is expected to be defeated by Marine Le Pen’s eurosceptic National Rally. In Italy, Matteo Salvini’s nationalist party, League, won 30% of the votes compared to the party tally of 17% in 2018’s general election. In the UK, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is expected to win by a landslide. Eurosceptic, anti-establishment and hard-right parties are also likely to win in Poland and Hungary. However, these gains are unlikely to make a decisive difference in the EU’s main legislative chamber.

Several eurosceptic parties failed to make breakthroughs across Europe. In Greece, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s party, Syriza lost ground. The anti-establishment group was defeated by the centre-right New Democracy party, resulting in a call for general elections. In Denmark, polls indicate the nationalist Danish People’s Party will get less than 12% of the vote, after securing 21% in the last national elections. Similar trends are expected in Spain, Austria, Slovakia and Finland.

In Germany, one the EU’s most influential economic powers, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc is expected to win, with 29% of the vote. This number is less than 35% posted in 2014. The Greens surged to 21%, while the nationalist AfD is expected to record 11%, lower than forecasts but higher than 2014’s 7%. 

Following the Second World War, centre-right and centre-left alliances have maintained a majority in the European Parliament. Analysts expect these traditional centre parties to lose some seats to Greens and Liberals. The pro-business Liberals and the Greens are the largest overall winners with 14% and 9% respectively. This is up from 9% for the Liberals and 7% for the Greens. Estimates show that centre parties are likely to remain the largest faction, although the Liberals and Greens may also guide agendas. This is because the centre parties do not have enough seats between them to form the European Commission. 

These results will have a decisive impact on the political direction adopted by the European Union over the next five years. It will determine the EP’s stance on issues such as taxes and international trade deals while exercising significant power in who secures the bloc’s top jobs.

Assessment

Our assessment is that despite suffering notable losses across the European continent, populist and Eurosceptic parties will definitely wield power over policy decisions but the extent to which they may do so depends entirely on the alliances they decide forge. Populist power in the EU seems to rest in the hands of a selected few – Brexit’s Farage, Italian League’s Salvini, and French National Rally’s Le Pen. These leaders are currently scrambling to form alliances in order to maximize their voting power within the EU but their individual efforts are being undermined by a lack of political cohesion. If Farage is able to reconcile his differences with Le Pen and join Salvini’s burgeoning Eurosceptic bloc, the group would be the fourth largest in the European Parliament and would able to exercise a fair amount of voting power over trade deals and tax laws that prioritize their national interests over the interests of the EU as a whole. Having said this, there is still a lack of consensus across populist parties over key voting decisions and the success of the Green Party and the Liberals might undermine the new-found political clout of the populists by championing liberal economic policies which maintain the status quo, but this time, with greater emphasis on environmental regulation.