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A PRAGMATIC APPROACH

July 16, 2022 | Expert Insights

More than a year after he was sworn in, President Biden could finally make his first presidential trip to the Middle East. As expected, the visit begins in Israel to reinforce the 'bone deep' bonds. Evidently, in Israel, the principal subject of discussion will be a nuclear Iran, although it seems unlikely the talks will make any significant headway considering that Israel has a 'temporary' prime minister.

In a surprise move, Mr Biden is scheduled to visit the disputed West Bank to meet the President of the nominally independent Palestinian Authority (PA). The move could be aimed at placating the Palestinians, who have received little political support from the U.S. for their dream of an independent nation for the last two years. Known to be an advocate of the two-state solution for Palestinian independence, the President will offer the olive branch to the Palestinians in terms of financial aid for hospitals and refugees as well as upgrade the telecommunications network. Most prominently, he will restart funding to the East Jerusalem hospital network, which was drastically cut during the Trump Administration.

However, the biggest media attention has been on his sudden decision to visit Riyadh, where he will be briefly meeting the ailing Saudi King Salman. However, more substantial talks will be held with a Saudi delegation led by Crown Prince Mohamad bin Salman (MBS). It may be recalled that during his election campaigning, Mr Biden had strongly criticised MBS for his alleged involvement in the Khashoggi murder, threatening to turn the oil-rich nation into a "pariah state."

From India's point of view, the visit is significant because, for the first time since its conception, the I2U2 (India, Israel, US, UAE) group convened a virtual summit attended by Mr Modi, Mr Yair Lapid, Mr Biden and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The focus was on collaborating on water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security. India offered its expertise as a member of the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate initiative (AIM Climate).

A PRAGMATIC APPROACH

Analysis

As long as oil is the lifeblood of the industrial world, the Middle East will occupy centre stage in the geopolitical calculus of the West. It's an unsettled region full of challenges, starting from Iran's nuclear deal, the raging Syrian Civil war, active terror groups, political instability in Iraq, Libya, and Lebanon, and certainly human rights issues. Recognising all this, in Mr Biden’s viewpoint, “a more secure and integrated Middle East benefits America in many ways[1],”

Every American interaction with the Middle East is driven by its desire to protect the free flow of trade and energy to international markets, combat the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction, and preserve regional dominance to keep other great powers at bay. Likewise, Biden's administration has shown some willingness to place the Middle East's stability above other goals like the defence of human rights and the advancement of democracy. Hence, the restoration of ties with Riyadh should be perceived from this perspective.

While in Israel, Mr Biden would demonstrate that the U.S. was solidly behind Israel’s outreach to mend fences with its Arab neighbours. Behind this is an effort to get the powerful Sunni states of the Gulf to collaborate with Israel to counter Iranian threats. With Mr Biden's efforts to restart the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action going nowhere, thanks to Russian intransigence, Mr Biden would try to drum up a wider regional consensus to prevent Iran's nuclearisation. For the U.S., there have been worrying reports that Iran and Russia have been drawing closer with the Russians offering their latest weaponry, including advanced drones, to Tehran for its unstinted support to Russia during the ongoing Ukraine war.

While in Riyadh, Mr Biden would also be seeking a way out for stabilising energy prices that are playing havoc with global economies- Saudi Arabia may be asked to increase the OPEC oil production to meet Russian shortfalls.

Assessment

  • While the Abraham Accords set the stage for wider cooperation between erstwhile enemies, it needs further impetus that a Presidential visit may provide. Saudi Arabia permitted for the first-time overflights by Israeli airlines just before the visit, which could be an indicator of the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Mr Biden could claim a measure of success at a time when his foreign policy has been under severe criticism.
  • Palestine will remain a simmering hot spot. Mr Biden made it clear that he saw no solution forthcoming in the "near term.” Therefore, nothing more substantial than some financial aid could be expected to come from the U.S., engrossed as it is in eastern Europe and dealing with a deteriorating economic situation at home.
  • MSB remains a conundrum that the American President will have to learn to live with, whatever be his personal opinion or electoral declarations. The pivotal role being played by the Crown Prince in the all-powerful Saudi Royal family as the uncrowned monarch (the ailing king largely remaining incommunicado) makes it difficult to ignore or bypass him in any government-to-government dealing. The need of the hour is getting hold of the galloping inflation in the U.S. (a new four-decade high in June of 9.1 per cent), fuelled by rising gas prices which is hurting Mr Biden's popularity in the midterm polls and might have a negative outcome for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections.