Parliament set to challenge May

British Prime Minister Theresa May risks losing control of Brexit in a series of votes in Parliament this week, that could see her forced to suspend the entire divorce or even be forced to go back to Brussels to negotiate the impossible.

Background

Parliament, is the supreme legislative body of the United Kingdom, and the British Overseas Territories. It alone possesses legislative supremacy and thereby ultimate power over all other political bodies in the UK and the overseas territories. Parliament is bicameral but has three parts, consisting of the Sovereign (the Queen-in-Parliament), the House of Lords, and the House of Commons (the primary chamber).

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.

PM Theresa May’s leadership in the negotiations has been heavily criticised. She has been unable to form a consensus within the Parliament, or even her own party, for the course of Brexit. Her “directionless” leadership has not convinced most of her peers in Westminster and she was challenged by a no-confidence motion in early December 2018, which she narrowly won.

Despite her best efforts, the British parliament is not accepting the proposed Brexit agreement. Irrespective of whether they arrive on a deal or not, the UK is officially set to leave in March 2019.

Analysis

There are two key battles that the House of Commons is preparing to settle on Tuesday (Jan 29), when it debates the next steps in Britain's split from the European Union: Mrs. May is fighting one radical plan from pro-EU members of Parliament to delay the exit date to stop Britain from falling out of the bloc with no deal. If it passes, it would be the beginning of a long parliamentary battle to put Brexit on hold.

Eurosceptics in her Conservative Party are demanding she go back to the negotiating table to seek an unlikely rewrite of the most contentious part of the deal, focused on the Irish border. There is a chance she could agree, but the problem is the EU has repeatedly warned it will not abandon the Irish border backstop plan.

Britain is set to leave the EU on March 29. After lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected the agreement Mrs May negotiated in a vote earlier this month, the concern is that exiting without a deal will cause major disruptions, economic hardship and a return to violence in Northern Ireland.

Ms. Yvette Cooper, the opposition Labour lawmaker behind one of the amendments that would force Mrs. May to extend the exit process if Parliament cannot approve a deal, told the BBC on Sunday that she is not trying to block Brexit. She said the responsible thing to do is to end the "game of chicken" surrounding the possibility of no-deal.

Mrs. May has privately told the Cabinet that she will not allow the country to leave without a deal. Nevertheless, Mr. Damian Hinds and Mr. Matt Hancock, two of Mrs May's lieutenants, lined up on to argue that no-deal is not likely because no one wants that to happen - while at the same time saying it is important the option remains possible so an agreement can be reached.

The chances of passage for any amendment will depend on how Mrs. May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn order their lawmakers to vote. Neither has made it clear in public which ones they will support.

Ireland reiterated that it will insist on the guarantee of an open border to ensure there is no return to violence between the North and the Republic. Neither the EU nor Ireland would accept an escape clause from the so-called backstop or set a time limit, Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney said.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the possibility of Brexit not happening altogether is getting stronger with every failure of the Theresa May government. We believe that the Parliament will look to enforce its own path after a series of failures from the PM. We also feel that if the Parliament wins this vote, it will be the biggest embarrassment for PM May so far. 

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