Northern Macedonia ready for closer ties

The newly re-named Balkan country is taking a new place in the world, joining NATO and aspiring to EU membership after ending decades of dispute with Greece.

Background 

The use of the name "Macedonia" is disputed between the south-eastern European countries of Greece and the Republic of Macedonia, formerly a state within Yugoslavia.

The dispute arises from the ambiguity in terminology between the Republic of Macedonia, the adjacent Greek region of Macedonia and the ancient Greek kingdom of Macedon (which falls mostly within Greek Macedonia). Citing historical and irredentist concerns, Greece opposes the use of the name "Macedonia" by the Republic of Macedonia without a geographical qualifier such as "Northern Macedonia" for use "by all ... and for all purposes".

On 12 June 2018, an agreement was reached between Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his Macedonian counterpart Zoran Zaev, where the Republic of Macedonia could be renamed the "Republic of North Macedonia".

Greece’s ruling coalition was on the verge of breaking as the right-wing coalition partner of Greek PM has threatened to withdraw support over Macedonia’s recently renaming.

Analysis 

In bringing North Macedonia into the company of western institutions, Prime Minister Zoran Zaev hopes to spur foreign investment and cement democracy in a country that was described by the European Commission as a victim of “state capture” under his predecessor, Nikola Gruevski.

The deal also changes the dynamic in one of Europe’s most turbulent and contested regions. The prospect of NATO and EU accession is a defeat for Russia, which has sought to keep the Balkans as a buffer zone between its sphere of influence and the west.

Mr Zaev said that while Moscow was concerned by Nato enlargement, it had no beef with his country and said he wanted more co-operation with Russia. “We don't have enough stones to attack Russia,” he said. “I don't expect something to happen during the Nato entry process because, really, we are not a threat to anyone.”

Mr Zaev, is a pro-western reformer who blames his country’s long marginalisation, the result of the dispute with Athens, for its parlous economic state and cycles of upheaval. Macedonia narrowly averted a civil war in 2001 between its Slav Macedonian majority and ethnic Albanian minority. In 2017, a decade of rule by Mr Gruevski culminated in EU-brokered elections, which brought Mr Zaev to power despite violent attempts to prevent him from taking office.

Since the country’s independence in 1991, Greece contended that its name implied territorial ambitions on its own province of Macedonia. Mr Zaev’s country had to put up with the cumbersome designation of Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or Fyrom — yet still remained blocked from Nato and EU accession. But Mr Zaev and Alexis Tsipras, his Greek counterpart, agreed on a compromise last year to end the dispute, which has been ratified by both countries.

The deal was contentious, with many Macedonians blaming Mr Zaev for giving too much ground to Athens and for compromises with Mr Gruevski’s nationalist VMRO-DPMNE. Mr Zaev says he and Mr Tsipras both feared their accord would make them “politically dead” but says support is rising and that citizens “follow leaders who make hard decisions”.

Mr Zaev now anticipates an economic dividend, saying four large companies had decided on projects that would employ several thousand people. A big European car company was considering a €1bn investment, he said.

In one year, Mr Zaev said, trade with Greece had risen almost 20 per cent, with Austria by 60 per cent, and with other neighbours by at least 10 per cent. Mr Zaev also wants to stem a steady flow of emigration.

The pro-EU Mr Zaev also showed ambitions to bring about wider regional changes — even hoping that his country’s eventual accession to the bloc could give a much-needed positive change to the EU project.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that a pro-EU, pro-US country in the Balkans is a strategic victory for NATO which has been unsuccessful in expanding membership to Eastern European countries so far. We believe that Northern Macedonia will benefit greatly by means of foreign investments and net immigration due to EU quotas in the coming years. 

Image Courtesy: vladamk (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Zoran_Zaev_with_Alexis_Tsipras.jpg), „Zoran Zaev with Alexis Tsipras“, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode

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