May’s plan to avoid “Hard border”

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government outlined steps to develop technology to keep the Irish border open after Brexit even if Britain is unable to negotiate a trade deal with the European Union.

Background 

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.

Over the two years, leaders of member nations have expressed their dismay over Britain leaving the body. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are among those who have been vocal about their apprehension regarding the events that are unfolding.

In December 2017, UK Prime Minister Theresa May struck a last-minute deal with the EU regarding key issues. According to this deal, there will be no "hard border" in Ireland. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU would also be protected. The deal was rejected by the British Parliament in January 2019. 

The UK is officially set to leave the EU on March 29, 2019.

Analysis 

The UK government will set up three advisory groups to help develop arrangements that could be used from the beginning of 2021 when Britain is due to leave a post-Brexit transition period, the Brexit Department said in an emailed statement. It will also dedicate 20 million pounds ($26 million) to testing potential technologies.

The measures are aimed at pacifying pro-Brexit members of May’s Conservative Party who want the premier to broker an alternative to the so-called Irish backstop, the default arrangements that will set in at the end of 2020 if the two sides can’t agree on a trade deal. The Brexiteers hate the backstop, saying it could tie Britain indefinitely to EU rules.

May is trying to win support for her exit deal in a make-or-break March 12 vote in the House of Commons, which rejected it by a historic margin in January. Brexiteers want the backstop dropped, and May’s latest proposals -- and signals from the EU -- suggest it won’t be. Instead, she hopes to win their support with a pledge to develop the technological solution during a 21-month transition period that’s due to follow Brexit on March 29, thus ensuring the backstop is never needed.

The latest announcement is an overture to a group of Tory lawmakers from both sides of the Brexit divide who unified behind a technological approach in January. Their proposal is called the “Malthouse compromise,” after the lawmaker who brought the warring factions together.

The three groups proposed by the Brexit ministry would be a panel of experts in trade and customs, a group to engage with businesses and trade unions, and a third group to consult lawmakers from across Parliament.

Brexit would make the Republic of Ireland–Northern Ireland border an external EU border. All parties have stated that they want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, due particularly to the historically sensitive nature of the border. 

On 15 January 2019, the UK parliament rejected a government motion to approve Theresa May’s draft withdrawal agreement which included a temporary “backstop” measure to prevent the Irish border from becoming a drawn-out conflict. As of late January 2019, many Brexit-supporting Conservative and DUP MPs continued to oppose a backstop without a specified end-date, concerned that it could tie the UK to many EU rules indefinitely. 

On 28 January 2019, May expressed opposition to the backstop that she and the EU had agreed and urged Tory MPs to back a backbench amendment replacing the backstop with unspecified "alternative arrangements".

Assessment 

Our assessment is that with the Brexit date just three weeks away, a failure of this proposal will lead to a chaotic situation in Britain’s Parliament. We believe that the resolution of the Irish border will become increasingly troublesome if the UK exits the EU and assumes that temporary stop-gap measures will be sufficient to handle the border. 

Image Courtesy: Oliver Dixon (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Border_on_Killeen_School_Road_-_geograph.org.uk_-_446719.jpg), „The Border on Killeen School Road - geograph.org.uk - 446719“, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode