LNA marches towards Tripoli

The leader of Libyan National Army (LNA) forces in eastern Libya has ordered them to march on the capital Tripoli, the base of the internationally recognised government.

Background

Tripoli is the capital city and the largest city of Libya, with a population of about 1.158 million people in 2018. It is located in the northwest of Libya on the edge of the desert, on a point of rocky land projecting into the Mediterranean Sea and forming a bay. It includes the port of Tripoli and the country's largest commercial and manufacturing centre.

Khalifa Belqasim Haftar is a Libyan military officer and the head of the Libyan National Army, currently engaged in the Second Libyan Civil War. On 2 March 2015, he was appointed the commander of the armed forces loyal to the elected legislative body, the Libyan House of Representatives.

Haftar held a senior position in the forces which overthrew Gaddafi in the 2011 Libyan Civil War. In 2014 he was commander of the Libyan Army when the General National Congress (GNC) refused to give up power in accordance with its term of office. Haftar launched a campaign against the GNC and its Islamic fundamentalist allies. His campaign allowed elections to take place to replace the GNC but then developed into a civil war.

Haftar has been described as "Libya's most potent warlord," having fought "with and against nearly every significant faction" in Libya's conflicts, and as having a "reputation for unrivalled military experience".

Analysis

Khalifa Haftar's order to the self-styled Libyan National Army came as UN chief Antonio Guterres was in Tripoli. Armed groups from the western city of Misrata, which back the government, have vowed to stop any advance.

Libya has been riven by violence and division since long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi was deposed and killed in 2011. Mr Guterres, the US and European nations have all called for calm. Mr Guterres said he was making a "strong appeal to stop... the escalation".

The UN Security Council will meet on Friday to discuss the situation following a request from the UK, reports said. The US, UK, France, Italy and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) issued a joint statement appealing for calm.

"At this sensitive moment in Libya's transition, military posturing and threats of unilateral action only risk propelling Libya back toward chaos," the statement, issued by the US state department, said. "We strongly believe that there is no military solution to the Libya conflict," the governments added.

The UN had been planning to hold a conference in Libya later this month for talks over ending the country's long-running crisis. After Gen Haftar's announcement, his forces moved towards the capital from several directions, one of his spokesmen said.

There were conflicting reports that Gen Haftar's forces had entered the town of Gharyan, 100km (60 miles) south of Tripoli.

The Libyan National Army (LNA) says it has secured Gharyan and moved on. However, it said two of its soldiers had been wounded in clashes in a nearby area. There were "ongoing efforts to avoid a confrontation" between rival fighters in the town.

The UN-backed government in Tripoli said it had put its forces on high alert. Meanwhile, residents in Misrata said armed groups from the city had begun moving towards the Libyan capital, Reuters reported.

In December, Gen Haftar met Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj from the UN-backed government at a conference but refused to attend official talks. Gen Haftar has received backing from Egypt and the UAE, who see him as tough on Islamists. He visited Saudi Arabia last week, where he met King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for talks.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Gen. Haftar is aiming to capture Tripoli and establish the LNA as the sole, internationally recognised government of Libya. We believe that the reason for using speed in capturing Tripoli from the present government is to ensure a quick, struggle-free coup of the entire country, in which Gen. Haftar already controls the Eastern provinces of Libya. We also feel that the planned offensive will irreversibly dent the UN-backed peace and reconstruction program in the country as Gen. Haftar’s forces will be targeting the UN-recognised rival factions. 

Image Courtesy: Magharebia (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tripoli_manifeste_pour_son_désarmement_(6482585005).jpg), „Tripoli manifeste pour son désarmement (6482585005)“, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode