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Lebanon’s new government formed

February 2, 2019 | Expert Insights

Lebanon formed a new government on January 31, ending nine months of wrangling and deadlock. A statement by Prime Minister Saad Hariri said bold moves were needed to address chronic problems facing the nation.

Background 

Lebanon has a high literacy rate and has traditionally been an important trading hub in the Levant. The country has a free market economy and is primarily service oriented. Today, Lebanon has a population of approximately 6 million, 95% of which is Arab. The country has a Muslim majority of 54% (27% Sunni, 27% Shia), however, Christianity is a significant minority, practised by 40.5% of the population.

Originally a part of the Ottoman Empire, Lebanon was officially formed in 1920 after France was granted the mandate for Lebanon and Syria. France granted Lebanon independence in 1943. Lebanon was wracked by civil war from 1975 to 1990. Syria and Israel invaded the country during this period. Israel finally withdrew in 2000, and Syrian troops withdrew under international pressure in 2005.

Lebanon is also home to Hezbollah, the Iran-backed organisation which has been blacklisted as a terrorist organisation by the US. The Hezbollah is a legitimate political party in Lebanon and has won 70 seats in the most recent election, and has cabinet positions in the new government.

Analysis 

The newly formed government of Mr. Hariri, who has Western backing, includes most of Lebanon’s parties. Hezbollah, the powerful, Iran-backed Shiite group, emerged stronger from the parliamentary election last May thanks to gains by its allies, and it chose to fill the post of the new health minister.

Celebratory fireworks burst over Beirut shortly after the deal to form a new government was announced.

In a statement read from the presidential palace, Mr. Hariri apologized to the people of Lebanon for the time it had taken to form the government and noted that they were “living in concern” over the economy. Mr. Hariri must now deliver on promises to rein in public spending to address the country’s dire finances and enact reforms that could unlock billions of dollars in pledged aid and loans for infrastructure investment. The time for “painkillers” was over, he said on Thursday, adding, “No one can put their head in the sand any more.”

“All the problems are known and the causes of the corruption and waste and administrative deficiency are also known,” he said, calling for a program of “bold reforms” without delay. Earlier, he said the new government would be forced to “take difficult decisions” to reduce spending.

Concerns have grown over the state of the economy and government finances. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, who retained his post, warned last month that Lebanon was in an economic crisis that had “started to turn into a financial one.” Lebanon’s public debt is one of the highest in the world relative to the size of its economy, and it has suffered low growth for years, in part because of regional turmoil.

Gebran Bassil, a political ally of Hezbollah who is the son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, remained foreign minister. The defence portfolio, significant partly because of major American military aid, went to another Aoun loyalist, Elias Bou Saab. Mr. Hariri nominated Rayya Hassan, a former finance minister, to the post of interior minister.

Although Health Minister Jamil Jabak is not a member of Hezbollah, his appointment has been seen as a signal of the group’s determination to exercise more direct sway over the government. The ministry has the fourth-biggest budget in the state. Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and has come under tightening American sanctions, has two other cabinet seats.

The anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, which nearly doubled its number of lawmakers in May 2018, has ceded ground at least twice in the negotiations, enabling the government to be formed. Hezbollah, together with groups and individuals that support its possession of weapons, won more than 70 of Parliament’s 128 seats in the May election.

Mr. Hariri lost more than a third of his lawmakers but kept his status as the leading Sunni and so returns as premier for the third time. The post is reserved for Sunni leaders under Lebanon’s system of rule.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that the formation of the Lebanese government is a positive sign for a country which has seen turbulence in its foreign policy and economy. We believe that Mr. Hariri’s new government will focus on development and will refrain from committing mistakes of the past.