Kim Jong-Un in Russia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the first trip aimed at galvanising support, while talks with Washington are in limbo.

Is North Korea looking for other negotiating partners after its refusal to meet with Secretary Pompeo?

Background

Diplomatic relations between North Korea and the Soviet Union were first established on October 12, 1948, shortly after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was proclaimed. Relations between the two countries continued after the fall of the Soviet Union. The relationship gained some importance again after Vladimir Putin was elected President of Russia in 2000. Kim Jong-un also accepted an invitation to visit Russia in mid-2015. The two states share a border along the lower Tumen River, which is 17 kilometres long.

The past decade has seen gradual warming of bilateral relations, more so under the leadership of Putin and Kim Jong Un. In September 2012 Russia agreed to write off 90% of North Korea's $11 billion historical debt to Russia as a sign of closer engagement with North Korea's new leader. The $1 billion which North Korea had to repay will be used to finance Russian investment in humanitarian and energy projects in North Korea.

In November 2014 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's special envoy, Choe Ryong-hae, made a seven-day visit to Russia. During his trip, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, delivering a letter to him from Kim Jong-un.

Analysis

The armoured train carrying Kim — on his first official visit to Russia — pulled into the quayside station in Vladivostok, on the Pacific Ocean, a few hours after crossing from North Korea into Russia. After a brief delay, while the door of Kim’s carriage was lined up with a red carpet laid out on the platform, the door opened, and a smiling Kim stepped out. Earlier, at a stop on the border, Kim told Russian state television he was hoping for useful and successful discussions with Putin. “I hope that we can discuss concrete questions about peace negotiations on the Korean peninsula, and our bilateral relations,” he said through an interpreter.

Kim will sit down for talks with Putin on Thursday at a university campus on an island just off Vladivostok. It will be the first summit between the two leaders, and the standoff over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme will top the agenda, according to a Kremlin foreign policy aide.

The meeting comes two months after a summit in Vietnam between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump ended in failure, leaving the North Korean leader looking elsewhere for international support and relief from sanctions.

For Putin, the summit is an opportunity to show that Russia remains a major global player despite being under sanctions itself, over its intervention in Ukraine and allegations that it meddled in U.S. elections. However, analysts predict that Kim is unlikely to emerge from the summit with any substantial promises of sanctions relief. The meeting is likely to focus more on showing camaraderie.

Vladivostok is located a few hours from the Russian-North Korean border by rail, Kim’s preferred mode of international transport. On arrival in the city, the North Korean leader reviewed an honour guard of Russian troops in a square in front of the train station, with bodyguards looking on. He removed his black fedora while a military orchestra played first the North Korean national anthem, then the Russian anthem.

After officials from the Russian and North Korean delegations exchanged handshakes, Kim climbed into a black limousine and drove off. About 10 North Korean security guards in black suits jogged alongside the vehicle for about the first 100 metres of its journey.

Russian media reported that Kim would be heading to Russky island, linked by a bridge to the mainland part of Vladivostok, where the summit will take place and where he is also expected to be staying.

Update: 

At his first summit with Russia's Putin in the far eastern Russian port of Vladivostok, Kim said: "the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the region is now at a standstill and has reached a critical point". Putin emerged from the meeting saying that like Washington, Moscow supported efforts to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula and prevent nuclear conflicts.

However, he also insisted that the North needed "guarantees of its security, the preservation of its sovereignty". Kim also said the actions taken by Washington were in "bad faith", implying a lack of trust in the negotiation process. 

Assessment

Our assessment is that Kim Jong Un is eager to establish himself as a significant world leader by unilaterally engaging with another world leader. We believe that Vladimir Putin could propose a restart of the six-party denuclearisation talks - which involved the United States, China, Russia, Japan and the two Koreas - last held in 2008. We also feel that the meeting was decided to be held in Vladivostok, a city less than 150 kms from the North Korean border as a sign of Russia’s accommodation of Kim, who travels only through his armoured train. 

Image courtesy: Kremlin.ru, Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin (2019-04-25) 06, CC BY 4.0