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Jordan for Palestine?

June 21, 2019 | Expert Insights

Background 

Jordan is a key player in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The Hashemite Kingdom is a small country with few natural resources but has played a pivotal role in the struggle for power in the Middle East. It’s significance results partly from its strategic location at the crossroads of what Christians, Jews and Muslims call the Holy Land.

The kingdom hosts millions of Palestinian refugees. After Israel’s creation in 1948 Jordan absorbed more Palestinians than any other country.

It is also a key ally of the United States and together with Egypt, one of the only two Arab nations to have made peace with Israel. Jordan has also signed a non-aggression pact with Israel.

Analysis

Jordanian ruler, King Abdullah II is against any suggestion that he might accept the US deal to end the Arab-Israeli conflict that would make his country a homeland for Palestinians. 

American officials have denied contemplating making Jordan a Palestinian homeland, pushing it to take a role in governing parts of the West Bank or challenging the right of King Abdullah’s dynasty to the custodianship of Jerusalem’s holy sites. Despite the US denials, Jordanians fear that Trump is returning to an old Israeli theme: That Jordan is Palestine and that is where the Palestinians of the West Bank should go. “Trump wants to buy and sell Jordan and create a new regime. We are behind the king in opposing this,” said Muraed Al-Adaylah, head of the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Already facing economic discontent at home, King Abdullah must navigate diplomatic moves by his US allies that are upturning a regional status-quo. Jordan has a struggling economy that is also a linchpin of security between Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. Jordan’s King Abdullah II said that it was essential the international community understand the importance Jordan puts on being the custodian of Jerusalem’s Islamic and Christian holy sites.

US President Donald Trump’s long-promised “Deal of the Century” to resolve the conflict is still secret, though leaked details suggest that it discards the idea of a full Palestinian state in favor of limited self-rule in part of the Occupied Territories, which would undermine Palestinians’ right to return. It envisages an expansion of Gaza into part of northern Egypt, under Egyptian control, with Palestinians also having a smaller share of the West Bank and some areas on the outskirts of Jerusalem and no control over their borders, the leaks say.

Amman has always maintained that it backs the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital, and the return of Palestinian refugees to their homes in historical Palestine. The kingdom has condemned the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem and reiterated its role as a custodian of Islamic and Christian holy sites in the occupied city. 

Counterpoint

Jordan will participate in a scheduled conference in Bahrain this month, where U.S. officials are expected to unveil the economic aspects of the so-called “deal of the century”, a back-channel plan to reach a peace settlement between the Palestinians and Israel.  Analysts believe that Amman's participation in the meeting on June 25-26 came upon pressure by U.S. President Donald Trump's senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who visited the kingdom late last month.  "Jordan’s participation in this conference paves the way for the deal of the century, which was rejected by the Jordanian king and government," Palestinian security expert Zakaria al-Qak, who is also a professor at Al-Quds University, told Anadolu Agency.  "This decision means that Jordan is at least ready to hear and think about the terms of the deal," he said.  "This is very dangerous to Jordan’s role in the Palestinian cause,” he opined.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Jordan’s economy is linked to the West Bank and any fallout from the US peace plan could affect its stability. It can be noted that Jordan’s allies in the Middle East have shifted their focus on Iran, severing financial support and leaving Jordan more vulnerable  than ever.  Jordan is also US’ closest Arab counterterrorism partner and strongly opposes the presence of Iranian backed militias. It is likely that a weakened Jordanian economy could compel the kingdom to accept the prised deal for resettlement of Palestinian refugees in Jordan. 

We feel that maintaining unity between citizens of Jordanian and Palestinian descent has become critical to the ruling family’s role as a unifying force in a country where tribal and clan loyalties hold sway. It can be observed  that the “Herak” opposition, drawn from Jordanians of native descent affirm  that the Deal of the Century will tear apart a state patronage system that has cemented their own loyalty to the monarchy. 

We believe that growing hostility towards refugee populations could emerge if Jordanians begin to perceive Palestinian residents as drain’s on Jordan’s exchequer and responsible for the mounting national debt. At the same time, we also concur that the native Jordanians are wary of ceding more political rights to their compatriots of Palestinian origin, in an electoral system titled currently in their favour.