Israel believes Iran is weakened

Media reports have emerged that Israel has published an internal memo regarding the current protests occurring in Iran. The nation believes that the protests have weakened the current regime in Iran.

Background

After the Iranian revolution in 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini came into power. He did not like Israel’s friendly equation with the previous regime. He declared that Israel was an enemy to Islam.

The already tense relations further deteriorated during the 90s. The two nations started fighting in proxy wars against one another during the tenure of Mahmud Ahmedinijiad, the President of Iran from 2005 to 2013. In 2006, reports emerged that Iran had provided aid to Hezbollah fighters (a group that Israel considers a terrorist outfit) during the Lebanon War.

Israel is said to have carried out three specific airstrikes targeting Iranians during the Gaza conflict. The two nations have since blamed one another for terror attacks, assassination, cyberattacks and more.

In 2017, Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said, "As long as the current regime exists, with the nuclear agreement or without it, Iran will continue to serve as the main threat to Israel's security.” That same year Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel said that Iran was setting up sites in Syria and Lebanon to produce missiles. He noted that Syria was being turned into a base of military entrenchment with the aim of attacking Israel.

He said, “Iran is busy turning Syria into a base of military entrenchment and it wants to use Syria and Lebanon as war fronts [in] its declared goal to eradicate Israel. It is also building sites to produce precision- guided missiles toward that end in both Syria and in Lebanon. This is something Israel cannot accept. This is something the UN should not accept.”

Analysis

In what is being described as the biggest domestic challenge to Tehran, there have been large scale anti-government protests taking place all across Iran. Thousands of people have taken to the streets in an act of dissension against the current regime.

Media reports have emerged that Israel has published an internal memo regarding the current protests occurring in Iran. The nation believes that the protests have weakened the current regime in Iran. The classified memo also states that the Iranian government was caught unawares by the protests. “The escalation of the protest’s messaging attests to our understanding of a certain breach of the Iranian citizens’ fear barrier,” the document reportedly states. The recent demonstrations have shown that “barrier” to have been eroded, the Foreign Ministry analysts conclude.

“At the moment, the protests do not constitute a threat to the survival of the regime, but they do weaken it and undermine its legitimacy, and they are likely to threaten its stability in the long term… Despite the fact that Rouhani’s image has been somewhat damaged, parts of the public still believe in him or at the very least see him as a lesser of all evils,” the document reportedly states.

Iranian leader Rouhani said that protests were being egged on by Saudi Arabia in a bid to weaken the state along with US and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the allegations but praised the Iranian population for being “brave”.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Israel will view the growing discord within Iran as a beneficial for its own sovereignty. With the regime in Iran weakened, it will no longer pose as a threat to the state of Israel. Intel experts have stated that the current crisis will distract Iran enough to remove its focus from Israel and will ultimately decrease the likelihood of escalated military conflict by Hezbollah or Iran.