ISIS surrounded in Raqqa

The Islamic State (ISIL or ISIS) may be very close to completely losing its stronghold in Raqqa, Syria. US-based forces in Syria have said that the Islamic State fighters are completely surrounded in the embattled city.

ISIS has had complete control over Raqqa since the beginning of 2014.

Background

Today, Raqqa is more or less considered the “capital” for the Islamic State. But in the 1950s, it prospered due to the cotton-boom that occurred worldwide. To this day, cotton remains the main agricultural product from the region. By the end of March 2013, Raqqa had become the battleground for the Syrian Civil War. Militants who were part of the Islamist jihadist groups including Al-Nusra Front overran the government. Al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaeda set up a sharia courts.

On January 13, 2014, ISIS had taken complete control of the city. They also began destroying mosques and churches within it and began executing Alawites (a branch of Shia Islam). Large portions of the city have been destroyed due to bombings and the ongoing conflict. Thousands fled from the city trying to escape the wrath of ISIS. Reports have even emerged that ISIS has used over 300,000 civilians as a shield in its fight against US-backed forces.

Analysis

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a multi-ethnic and multi-religious alliance of Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian, Armenian, Turkmen and Circassian militias, started its offense against ISIS in Raqqa on June 6, 2017. The forces have dubbed this operation, “The Great War.” They are aided by United States in the campaign. There are 500 US Special Forces operating on the ground in northern Syria to support the ongoing conflict.

On June 29, having successfully advanced defeating ISIS forces along the way, the group announced that the last escape route has been blocked. Hence, ISIS is essentially surrounded. According to Col Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led coalition against ISIS, the SDF would now approach Raqqa from the south. He has also said that the current fighters in the city who are part of ISIS have been abandoned by their leadership and hence wouldn’t be able to mount an effective defence. SDF believes that defeat of the Islamic State is imminent.

Assessment

Our assessment is that ISIS leadership would be unable to defend both Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. There is a parallel siege taking place in Mosul and the latest reports from the Iraqi army suggest that ISIS is cornered in that region as well. However, defeating ISIS in Raqqa will only be the beginning. There has been large-scale damage done to the infrastructure of the city and that needs to be re-built. There should also be a working government instated in its place. All of that could take a long time. It is also likely that ISIS will continue to operate through its global networks and sleeper cells in the future.