ISIS in Philippines

The threat of Islamic State is mounting in the Philippines along with the growing momentum among local pro-Islamic State militant groups.

Background

In Iraq and Syria, the  Islamic State’s territory has shrivelled after four years of American-backed bombing and ground combat by Kurdish and Shiite militia fighters. The movement has sprouted in the Mindanao island group of the southern Philippines, long a haven for insurgents because of dense wilderness and weak policing. ISIL maintains its operations in the Philippines through local jihadist groups - Maute group, Abu Sayyaf group, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and Ansar Khalifa Philippines.

In 2017, ISIS-affiliated militants laid siege to the city of Marawi in Mindanao for five months. The Philippines security forces got into armed conflict with the militants which is called the Battle of Marawi. Seven of the Maute brothers died in the conflict. On 25th January 2019, violence erupted between government forces and a group led by Abu Dar. The military claimed, “big success” for killing three terrorists and dismantling the training camp, even as Abu Dar managed to flee. Two days later, twin bombings ripped through the Cathedral of Our Lady of Mount Carmel in Jolo, on Sulu island in the south-western tip of Mindanao, killing 23 people attending a Sunday mass and wounding 109 others. 

The presence of foreign fighters is known to energise and embolden local pro-Isis groups and there are increasing concerns of a renewed bid to declare a caliphate in Mindanao.

Analysis

ISIS considers the islands of the southern Philippines as its East Asia province.  Post the attack, an illustration circulated on Islamic State chat groups, showing President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines kneeling on a pile of skulls and a militant standing over him with a dagger. The caption on the picture read “The fighting has just begun.”

“ISIS has a lot of power,” said Motondan Indama, a former child fighter on the island of Basilan and cousin of Furuji Indama, a militant leader who has pledged fealty to the group. “I don’t know why my cousin joined, but it’s happening all over.”

The group made a call for southern Philippines recruitment in 2016, circulating videos online beckoning militants who could not travel to its self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Fighters poured in from as far away as Chechnya, Somalia and Yemen, intelligence officials said. The militants who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State took over the city of Marawi in Mindanao. As the Islamic State constructed its caliphate in the Middle East, it connected disparate militants in the Philippines under one ideological banner, said Sidney Jones, the director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict in Jakarta, Indonesia.

“ISIS has money coming into the Philippines, and they are recruiting fighters,” said Rommel Banlaoi, chairman of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research. “ISIS is the most complicated, evolving problem for the Philippines today, and we should not pretend that it doesn’t exist because we don’t want it to exist.” Rommel Banlaoi said that other southern cities are at increased risk of attack by energized Islamic State loyalists. “They have won the battle strategically, as they have proven how long they can endure the fight against government forces,” he said, adding that the Marawi battle will stand as an example of “martyrdom that can inspire others.”

Local Islamist groups claiming to represent the Islamic State have been trying to recruit the young with promises of cash and adventure, according to Commander Asiong.

Southeast Asian militants gained battlefield experience in Afghanistan and ideological guidance in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. More recently, hundreds of Filipinos, Indonesians and Malaysians travelled to Iraq and Syria to act as foreign fighters for the Islamic State, forming their own corps with its own recruitment tools online.

Assessment

Our assessment is that there is continuing support for Isis-affiliated groups among local Muslims who have been displaced by the Marawi conflict. They have affected by widespread corruption and the violation of government promises of autonomy in Mindanao.  It can be noted that the militants use Malaysia and Indonesia which have poorly policed waters, as their launching pads to carry out attacks in the Philippines. 

Image Courtesy - Philippines Information Agency