Skip to main content

ISIL’s ideological challenge

March 27, 2019 | Expert Insights

ISIL may no longer possess physical territory, but its ideology poses a potent threat that demands a concerted effort to thwart its rise.

Background

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), also known as ISIS or Daesh, is a Salafi jihadist militant group that adheres to a fundamental doctrine of Sunni Islam. Gaining prominence by claiming the reestablishment of the Caliphate in 2014, the group became an unrecognised proto-state. By January 2015, the group controlled vast regions of Iraq and Syria, participating significantly in the Syrian Civil War.  

In October 2016, Iraqi armed forces launched an offensive, targeting ISIL positions in regions surrounding the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. The offensive marked a turning point in the fortunes of the group, leading them to lose Mosul and their foothold in Iraq. 

The Syrian Civil War has occupied the politics of the Middle East since 2011. Sparked by the Arab Spring, President Bashar al-Assad has resisted opposition. The war is being fought by several factions: the Syrian government and its allies, a loose alliance of Sunni Arab rebel groups (including the Free Syrian Army), the majority Kurdish, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front and ISIL. In addition to these groups, a number of countries including the US, Israel, Russia and Iran have vested interests in the outcome of the war.  

The drive to neutralise ISIL has carried on from Iraq into Syria. Iran and Russia, key allies of Assad have targeted ISIL positions. The US has supported the SDF, initially seeking an end to Assad’s rule, and has consistently targeted ISIL. By 2017, Iraq, Iran and Russia had all declared victory over ISIL. On December 19, 2018, American president Donald Trump declared ISIL to have been defeated. Despite these statements, ISIL occupies a few enclaves in Syria.

Analysis

Recent events in Syria have seen various entities declare victory over the would-be caliphate. Although the press cycle has been dominated by these claims to victory, there continued to be an ISIL presence in Syria. The SDF has engaged in a months-long assault, closing in the last of the ISIL strongholds in the Euphrates Valley. According to the SDF, some 66,000 people have left the region since January, a number that includes 5,000 militants and 24,000 of their dependents.

The months-long offensive had to be placed on hold on multiple occasions to permit people to leave, a task exacerbated by an SDF-instituted screening process that aims to separate militants from civilians. Most civilians,  including relatives of ISIL militants, are currently in Al-Hol camp in Northeastern Syria, which was built to accommodate 20,000 but now holds 72,000. The Kurdish administration in the region has stated that it does not possess the capability to detain the number of people it has, nor does it wield the mandate to place offenders on trial.

Estimates hold that foreign fighters make up the majority of ISIL fighters that continued to hold enclaves. A potential reason for this disparity is the reluctance of the home countries of suspected ISIL members to take them back, citing security risks and the tide of public scorn that might accompany such a move. Instead, the most viable option for them is to stay and fight. Therefore, given that the majority of fighters fled the scene, world and regional powers began to claim the demise of ISIL. However, fighting by largely foreign-born militants continued.

On March 24, 2019, the SDF and independent sources reported the surrender of a number of foreign jihadists, leading to their detainment. This led to the press cycle, boosted by SDF claims, reporting that the last ISIL enclave in Syria had been overrun. However, the lack of an impartial judicial detainment process, in addition to the reluctance to repatriate, places thousands of foreign jihadists in a state of limbo that demands urgent addressal.

Counterpoint

ISIL’s appeal was largely ideological. Among the civilians in refugee camps are thousands of children who are steeped in ISIL ideology. Re-education and re-integration programs are the only method available to help thwart the threat of radical ideology. ISIL’s message and claim to the seat of the Caliphate have spread to other parts of the world, highlighting the insidious nature of this ideological threat.

Assessment

Our assessment is that while the last traces of ISIL territory disappears, the battle for people’s hearts and minds still remains. We believe that the only way to eradicate radical ideology is through education and re-integration programs, aimed at restricting the spread of ISIL’s reach. We believe it is in the benefit of various powers involved in Syria, to reach a consensus over how the dispersal of ISIL’s threat is contained, although, given the geopolitics of the region, this remains unlikely.