Indonesia’s electoral burdens

Indonesia votes in the largest single-day elections in history amidst increasing disunity and identity-driven politics. 

Background

The Republic of Indonesia is a Southeast Asian nation that occupies a strategic location between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Comprised of over 17,000 islands, Indonesia has a population of over 261 million and is the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country with over 87.2% of the population professing Islam. As a republic with a presidential system, constitutional power is concentrated in the central government. Indonesia goes to polls in a presidential election on April 17, 2019, in the largest single-day polls in history, with over 190 million eligible voters. 

Joko Widodo, Indonesia’s incumbent president, was previously the Mayor of Surakarta and then Governor of Jakarta from 2012 to 2014. Mr. Widodo does not come from an elite political or military background attaining prominence and support during his term of Governor of Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital and largest city.

Prabowo Subianto, a presidential candidate in Indonesia’s 2019 elections, is a former Lieutenant General and former son-in-law to Indonesia’s military leader Suharto. Marred by allegations of human rights violations, Mr. Subianto has previously been banned from some Western states. 

Analysis

As the campaign for Indonesia’s presidency reaches a fever pitch, Prabowo Subianto has employed his strongman image in order to engage in a populist centric-movement. Mr. Subianto has actively highlighted potential threats to Indonesia, by making statements alluding to Indonesia’s position on the precipice of fragmentation.  He told his supporters on the campaign trail, “The Indonesian motherland is being raped.” Mr. Subianto has actively cultivated ties with hardline Islamist groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI). Using his religion, he has mounted attacks on Mr. Widodo, who has been perceived as soft on Islamic issues. Mr. Widodo has received criticism for inaction over the plight of the Muslim-majority Rohingya in Myanmar and the alleged persecution of Uyghur's in China. Mr. Subianto has dressed in white Islamic clothes on a campaign trail in order to identify with Indonesia’s majority-Muslim population. Mr. Subianto’s Islamist alliances have raised concerns that he will have to make legislative allowances should he gain the presidency.

In 2014, Mr. Subianto ran a failed bid for the presidency, falling short by six percent to Mr. Widodo. He refused to concede defeat for a fortnight, contesting the official results, which confirmed Mr. Widodo’s victory. Mr. Subianto’s alliance with Islamist groups is likely to boost his poll results. However, in the event Mr. Widodo wins, Mr. Subianto’s campaign team have already cast doubts over voter lists and the integrity of election machinery. 

Indonesia’s electoral machinery presents challenges of its own. The country boasts three different time zones, hundreds of ethnic groups and languages, bringing with it immense logistical issues. Moreover, the state has chosen to undertake a single-day election, complicating the electoral process further. Some of its tribes are unable to vote as they remain illiterate; the state makes little allowances for such factors. As an archipelago of over 17,000 islands, the country has historically struggled to form a common consensus. In addition to electing a president, Indonesia will also elect legislative representatives. The legislative elections boasts approximately 245,000 candidates for over 20,000 seats. This is one of the fundamental reasons why the country embraced the philosophy of Bhinneka Tunggal Ika - unity in diversity - promoting tolerance and the right to choose one’s faith. However, rising intolerance, fostered by an appeal to religion-based identity politics, has made Indonesia’s democracy fragile. Mr. Subianto’s weaponisation of Indonesia’s typically peaceful form of Islam is worrisome in this light. 

Indonesia’s elections bring to the forefront issues pertaining to Islam in South East Asia. Increasingly, Islamist governments in the region have adopted more stringent social laws according to their interpretation of Sharia law. Brunei introduced laws that made adultery and homosexual acts punishable by stoning. Mr. Subianto’s appeal to the Muslims of Indonesia follows a similar vein. 

Assessment

Our assessment is that Indonesia’s decision to hold presidential and legislative elections across its archipelago on a single day is a substantial logistical challenge, perhaps stifling the ability of its electorate to vote. We believe that Mr. Subianto’s appeal to Muslims is indicative of larger trends in Muslim South East Asia. It is likely that those riding an Islamist, populist wave will enact laws in line with Muslim social traditions. It is our position that in order for Indonesia’s democracy to withstand such pressure, it must hold fast to its historic embrace of unity in diversity and tolerance. Indonesia must do more to empower the franchise of its electorate. 

Image Courtesy - Prabowo Subianto [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]

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