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India-China bilateral talk?

July 7, 2017 | Expert Insights

As the world leaders come together for the G-20 summit at Hamburg, Germany held from 6th July to 8th July, rumors of bilateral talks between Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi Jinping are being put to rest.

Mr. Gopal Baglay the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs put to rest the possibility of bilateral talks between the two leaders. India would have talks according to Mr. Baglay with Argentina, Canada, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, U.K. and Vietnam. Mr. Geng Shuang spokesperson of Chinese Foreign Ministry has further stated that the precondition for the peace talks would be the withdrawal of Indian troops from the disputed border area. India has not taken any steps towards the this and consequently the possibility of the bilateral talks has receded.  

Analysis

India and China have a history of border disputes. The Doklam plateau is an addition. The issue between India-China-Bhutan over the Doklam plateau arose with Chinese construction of roads on the disputed land. The land is of geographical and strategic significance to all three nations. Since the said dispute has resulted in a standoff between China and India, the possibility of a bilateral treaty between the two no longer exists.

President Xi had earlier stated that the opening of Nathu La Pass and the Manasarovar-Kailash Yatra could be considered a significant and positive step of a possible bilateral talks between India and China. But the Doklam controversy has led to refusal of entry and use of the Nathu La pass to India pilgrims by the Chinese authorities.

Assessment

Our assessment is that it will be very difficult for President Xi to backdown. It will be a loss of face in front of his army. Both countries would have to resort to tact and diplomacy and the upcoming meeting of the National Security Advisors on the 26th of July would be an opportunity to do some damage control and settle the dispute.