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FRUITLESS BLOODSHED

September 24, 2022 | Expert Insights

The Russian sphere of influence is in turmoil. The border clash between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan comes against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the renewed fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

On September 14, two members of the Kyrgyz State Committee for National Security were injured due to heavy fire from the Tajik side of the border close to the Bulak-Bashy region. The firing ceased at noon, and the border problem was discussed during a bilateral meeting between Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on September 16 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, held in conjunction with the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. 

However, on September 17, Kyrgyz border settlements Kulundu, Maksat, and Dzahni-Dzher, among others, came under intense artillery shelling in the Batken region. Consequently, there have been fatalities and internal displacement on both sides.

Background

In the previous ten years, disagreements between the two countries have focused on land rights, water resources, and the utilisation of plateaus. Reportedly, the two countries have experienced close to 150 conflicts, including fatalities.

The Kyrgyz-Tajik boundary is one of the most complicated land frontiers due to mountainous terrain and the existence of the Tajik exclaves Varukh and Kairgach inside Kyrgyzstan's Batken province. The boundary spans 970 kilometres with differences in perception along 459 kilometres in the densely populated Fergana Valley.

Last year, a contested part of the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border saw the worst fighting in decades. The issue arose from Tajik officials installing surveillance cameras at a reservoir's water facility.

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Analysis

Although periodic conflicts of varying degrees of severity occur along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, this one stands out. It appears to be an aggressive act on the part of Tajikistan, a deliberate and planned military action, as indicated by the sheer size of the operation and the quantity of heavy military equipment and personnel used.

The potential causes for the recent flare-up are two-fold. One, the present long-serving president of Tajikistan intends to transfer power to his son Rustam Emomali, the parliament's speaker. A tried-and-true strategy used by desperate regimes to assert their power and stability is to attack their adversaries in a short but decisive war to deflect unwanted public attention at home.

Two, Emomali Rahmon might be trying to divert domestic and international attention from the remarkably tenacious and defiant protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), which is home to the Pamiri minority. Following the gruesome murder of a local activist by the Security Services in November 2021, protests broke out. Despite a vicious assault on the demonstrations earlier this year and efforts to censor domestic media, word of the government's horrendous treatment of the Pamiris continues to spread.

Additionally, any agreement on concessions would almost surely hurt the interests of the border villages that share the same water sources, meadows, highways, and other amenities, raising the possibility of further internal turmoil, which weakly placed rulers on both sides are loath to risk.

In contrast, higher-level mechanisms are also ineffective. The paradox is that Russia caught up in the rejuvenated counter-offensive in Ukraine, has historically held the peace in the restive region of Central Asia. Through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), an association of seven former Soviet states, Russia has generally kept its former satellite states in line. Today, when Russian power appears on the wane, its erstwhile vassals are breaking the chains of Russian overlordship and control to pursue their national agendas. We see a similar conflict situation brewing between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The SCO was a missed opportunity as the two governments failed to take advantage of a crucial window of time to defuse the issue before it escalated. This is a continuum of a pattern of incompetent leadership on both sides.

Assessment

  • Most Central Asia inherited Soviet Union’s complicated borders that were drawn mindlessly without considering economic, geographical or ethnic realities. In many instances, the cause of border conflicts is the perception of boundaries as an arbitrary imposition and a historical aberration. Hence, understanding the concept of borders by those who live across or cross them is crucial to tackling that problem.
  • Rather than turning to external mediation, tensions must be reduced by cooperative agreements. Intervention from both governments of the two countries is required to improve independent monitoring systems, develop institutions in both sectors, and foster greater inter-ethnic understanding.
  • The time has come for a border dispute resolution, which would pave the way for increased regional security, and boost intra-regional trade, which has long been hampered by trade restrictions, rigid borders, and strained communication links.