Food shortages after Brexit?

The European Union expects Britain to seek its assistance to avoid disruption to food imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the EU's agriculture chief said.

Background 

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.

PM Theresa May’s leadership in the negotiations has been heavily criticised. She has been unable to form a consensus within the Parliament, or even her own party, for the course of Brexit. Her “directionless” leadership has not convinced most of her peers in Westminster and she was challenged by a no-confidence motion in early December 2018, which she narrowly won.

Despite her best efforts, the British parliament is not accepting the proposed Brexit agreement. Irrespective of whether they arrive on a deal or not, the UK is officially set to leave in March 2019.

Analysis 

Diplomats in Brussels say there is one telling measure of the low reached in the Brexit saga: the political blame game has started over responsibility for a chaotic no-deal exit.

From the moment Britain triggered the two-year Article 50 clock on its departure in March 2017, the “cliff-edge” threat has been used by Brussels negotiators, both to exert pressure and kick-start national planning for the worst.

However, such a scenario, once dismissed as a theoretical doomsday outcome, has taken a sense of urgency since Westminster overwhelmingly rejected Theresa May’s draft deal, prompting her to seek a renegotiation just weeks before Britain’s March 29 departure date.

“My analysis is that we are really heading for the abyss,” said one senior EU figure handling Brexit. “We may extend to June. But it is coming. The risk of no-deal is huge.”

The drumbeat of planning helps those, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who see the Brexit brinkmanship as potentially helping shift support in favour of a deal in Westminster.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29 and Prime Minister Theresa May has still to secure parliamentary approval for a divorce deal agreed with the EU last year, increasing the chances of a disorderly exit from the bloc.

The British food industry has warned of price rises and fresh produce shortages if Brexit terms are not agreed, and EU Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan said Britain's reliance on imports for 40 per cent of its food supply meant this was a high risk for the government.

"I'm sure that the United Kingdom will be giving us a phone call to make sure that in the first few days or few weeks of any particular hard Brexit that there is a joint effort on behalf of the UK and the European Union to mitigate the damage to the citizens of the UK in relation to food," Hogan said.

"I don't think they will want a situation where they will have a logistical problem at their ports, that they will have food shortages and food prices going up in the shops," Hogan added.

The EU would prefer a "soft" Brexit with a transition period, as set out in last year's withdrawal agreement agreed by May and the other 27 EU countries, but was "ready for the worst-case scenario", Hogan said.

Food industry and farming representatives in the rest of the EU have also expressed concern about potential disruption to massive trade flows with Britain, including tailbacks at borders or the closure of British fishing waters.

However, EU agriculture's experience of dealing with crises such as the Russian food embargo from 2014 and widespread cases of mad cow disease two decades ago would help it cope with an abrupt Brexit, Hogan said.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that a no-deal Brexit could be disastrous for the normal functioning of British society with an irrational fear of collapse and panic buying of resources. We believe that PM May and the Parliament has to arrive on a deal before the 29th of March if they want to avoid a potential meltdown in Britain.