Ethiopian, Eritrean leaders visit South Sudan

The Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders arrived in Juba on March 4, 2019 with the view to spur President Salva Kiir to make more peace overtures in his country’s worsening political crisis.

Background

South Sudan is a landlocked country in East-Central Africa. The country gained its independence from Sudan in 2011, making it the newest country with widespread recognition. Its capital and largest city is Juba. South Sudan has suffered ethnic violence and has been in a civil war since 2013. In December 2013, a political power struggle broke out between President Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar, as the president accused Machar and ten others of attempting a coup d'état. The two have been at the opposite ends of two warring factions ever since.

Since the start of the conflict, almost 2 million people have been internally displaced, and another 2 million have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. More than 230,000 people are sheltering in six United Nations bases located in towns across the country. 

In addition, the country’s economy has also been devastated. According to the IMF, real income has halved since 2013 and inflation is more than 300% per annum. Some estimates note that nearly six million people in the region could be starving.

It should be noted that there have been multiple attempts in the past to negotiate for peace in the region. However, multiple peace treaties have not rendered fruitful results thus far. In 2016, Machar was briefly made the Vice President of the country, but peace was short-lived. Violent fighting ensued, and he fled South Sudan in 2016. Machar has been held under house arrest in South Africa since late 2016.

Analysis

Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki are in Juba, South Sudan on an official visit. The leaders are visiting the country in order to try ending the ongoing civil war that has devastated the country. Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia said the discussions were to be centred on regional peace, economic ties and infrastructure development.

South Sudan president Salva Kiir who was on a tour of one of the country’s northwestern Bahr el Ghazal state cut short his trip to meet with the visiting leaders. Some engagements slated for the trio include a tripartite meeting in the morning followed by the release of a joint press statement.

The visit by the two leaders comes towards the end of a month-long ultimatum that South Sudanese politicians gave to renegade former Vice President Riek Machar to join the reconciliation process or lose his status as the official opposition leader.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have recently reconciled their differences and their leaders Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki have committed to maintaining peace in the region. In April last year, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced in his inaugural address his commitment to end the border dispute and repair ties with neighbouring Eritrea after two decades of war. The governments have agreed to jointly develop Eritrea’s ports and Ethiopian telecom company Ethio-Telecom is going to restore phone lines in Eritrea.

Ethiopia has traditionally played a key role in seeking to return South Sudan to peace after a protracted civil war-ravaged Africa’s youngest nation. Addis Ababa hosted the peace deal between government and rebel factions under the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD. Ethiopia also hosts a substantial amount of refugees fleeing instability in South Sudan.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki could motivate  South Sudanese President Salva Kiir to try to emulate their recent partnership. Riek Machar could be expected to return to South Sudan in order to take his place as opposition leader.

Image Courtesy - Jenny Rockett, Salva Kiir Mayardit, CC BY-SA 3.0