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Erdogan confirms S-400 deal

March 10, 2019 | Expert Insights

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke his silence over a U.S. threat to punish Turkey with sanctions should it buy an advanced Russian S-400 missile-defense system, saying the purchase is a “done deal.”

Background 

One of Turkey's most important international relationships has been with the United States since the end of the Second World War and the beginning of the Cold War. Turkey's association with the United States began in 1947 when the US Congress (following the Truman doctrine), designated Turkey as the recipient of special economic and military assistance intended to help it to resist threats from the Soviet Union. A mutual interest in containing Soviet expansion provided the basis of U.S.–Turkish relations for the next four decades.

Relations between the countries began to deteriorate in 2003 as Turkey refused to allow the United States to use Incirlik Air Base for the invasion of Iraq. This has further spiralled down following the failed coup d'état attempt in Turkey in July 2016. The country′s foreign policy has gradually veered towards seeking partnerships with other powers such as Russia.

Another major rift with the U.S. is over Washington’s support for a Syrian Kurdish force that Ankara regards as a mortal enemy. To keep the Kurdish fighters away from its frontier, Turkey wants to secure a Syria safe zone along its border and see that this is manned by a multinational force.

Analysis 

Erdogan said “no one should attempt to tame Turkey” with threats on trade and that his country wouldn’t agree to a U.S. proposal to sell its own Patriot missile-defense system unless it shares the technology.

“It is out of the question for us to revoke the S-400 deal,” Erdogan said. “Such an immoral act would not suit us.” The U.S. warned this week that it could retaliate by blocking Turkey’s planned purchase of the next-generation F-35 fighters that it is currently helping to build. The U.S. fears the Russian system could be used to collect intelligence on the jet’s stealth capabilities, but Erdogan said “we’ve researched it, there is no such thing.”

Ties remain strained between the NATO allies even after Turkey defused a showdown last year by freeing long-held U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson. President Donald Trump stripped some Turkish exporters of their preferential trade status, and the U.S. warned of penalties against any government entities, private businesses or individuals involved in the purchase of the missiles from Russia. The Pentagon is also seeking to install a multinational force in a planned Syria safe zone over Turkey’s objections. “We will not go into a deal if they insist on keeping the ‘key’ to the system,” Erdogan said of the Patriot missiles. “We’ve agreed with the Russians, we will go into joint production. We may also go into S-500s after the S-400s.”

The top U.S. Commander in Europe, Curtis Scaparrotti, told the Senate Armed Services that the Pentagon should refuse Turkey’s planned purchase of 100 Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters if Ankara goes through with buying the S-400s. Turkey has invested more than $1.25 billion in the stealth F-35 jet since its development phase began in 2002. The U.S. can’t dictate that Turkey should buy everything from it, Erdogan said, with a reminder that the country’s flagship Turkish Airlines is purchasing planes from Boeing Co. worth about $10 billion.

Counterpoint

Despite the grievances, Erdogan also struck an optimistic note by speaking favorably about Trump. The Turkish president said the two leaders may soon talk on the phone and added that his son-in-law, Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, was also in touch with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to defuse the tensions.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Erdogan’s proclamation of Turkey being free to choose its own weapon suppliers is a major turning point in the US-Turkey relations, with the potential to undo decades of positive, bilateral cooperation. We believe that Turkey’s pivot towards Russia is a result of Ankara’s animosity towards Washington’s support of Kurdish Militias as well as refusing to extradite wanted cleric Fethullah Gulen. 

Image Courtesy: World Economic Forum from Cologny, Switzerland 

(https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Prime_Minister_of_Turkey_Recep_Tayyip_Erdogan.jpg), „Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan“, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode