Democrats gearing up for 2020

Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard, Beto O’Rourke and possibly Bernie Sanders are expected to confirm their intentions to run for President in the 2020 elections. 

After a shock defeat in the 2016 Presidential Elections, the Democratic Party will look to infuse new perspectives and popular faces for its presidential bid.

Background 

The 2020 United States presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then, in turn, elect their party's presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is seeking reelection to a second term. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Analysis 

Democratic party presidential candidate Kamala Harris says she’s the kind of leader who can unify the country and would fight for the needs of all Americans.

The first-term California senator, who announced her candidacy on January 21, planned a speech at a rally in Oakland, her hometown, as she outlines her campaign and introduces herself to the nation. “I’m running for president because I love my country. I’m running to be a president by the people. Of the people. For all the people.” Harris, the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India, has drawn deeply from symbolism as she has rolled out her campaign. She entered the race on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Campaign aides say she has drawn inspiration from Shirley Chisholm, who in 1972 became the first black woman to run for president from a major party.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York has announced an exploratory committee as well. Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney and Julian Castro, federal housing chief under President Barack Obama and a former San Antonio mayor, already are in the race. Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Bernie Sanders of Vermont may also run.

In addition to Harris, Democrat leader Elizabeth Warren has established an exploratory committee to test her chances at a successful 2020 bid. Traditionally, an exploratory committee is commissioned only by candidates who are confident in their intentions to put their name on the party primaries ballot. Warren was one of the first Democrats to announce their run for President and has openly stated that she intends to challenge Trump head on.

She is also a favourite target of Trump, whose taunts calling her “Pocahontas” prompted the DNA test. He has also labelled her “Goofy Elizabeth Warren”. Even in her heavily Democratic home state, Warren is a polarizing figure. The editorial board of the Boston Globe, noting that she won re-election with fewer votes than Republican Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, encouraged her not to run for president.

The Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke emerged as the breakout fundraising star of the 2018 elections, collecting more than $80 million in his unsuccessful US Senate campaign against Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. Chicago financier and former US ambassador to the UK, Louis Susman, a fundraiser who is so successful that one of his hometown papers once called him a vacuum cleaner for his ability to suck up campaign dollars, recently told CNN that he would back O'Rourke, should the Texan enter the race.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard was the first Samoan-American in Congress and has announced her intentions to seek party nomination for the 2020 Presidential Election. Rep. Gabbard is the youngest candidate who has announced her run for President and has served in the US military, with a tour of Iraq in 2004-2005.

Senator Bernie Sanders is yet to make an announcement of his intention to run. His candidacy will certainly attract more attention than his 2016 run largely due to his stiff opposition to President Trump’s controversial Border Wall and lack of social security reform which he champions. 

Assessment 

Our assessment is that the Democratic Primaries will be a crowded stage with 6 candidates already signalling their intention to challenge President Trump in 2020. We believe that the Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke could be a strong contender as he seems to follow the trail of Obama a decade ago, when a freshman senator, defying all odds and building a fundraising campaign from small donors, ultimately defeated Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary.

India Watch 

The Democratic Party has been slowly warming up to Indian leadership, irrespective of whether the Congress or BJP are in power. However, India stands to gain massively from a democratic president in 2020, particularly Rep. Gabbard who has been extremely supportive of PM Modi. Additionally, Senator Harris may leverage her Indian ancestry on her maternal side to build closer ties if elected as President.