China did not meddle in Elections

Experts say Beijing had attempted to exert its influence on the 2016 Presidential Elections through indirect methods such as manipulating American companies.

Background

The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine, despite losing the popular vote.

The United States government's intelligence agencies concluded on January 6, 2017, that the Russian government had interfered in the 2016 United States elections in order to "undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency." President Trump repeatedly criticized these intelligence claims, citing a lack of evidence and calling the issue a "hoax" and "fake news".

Investigations regarding potential collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials were started by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Senate Intelligence Committee, and the House Intelligence Committee. The Special Counsel investigation which began in May 2017 is currently ongoing.

President Trump has repeatedly raised questions on China’s role in the cyber-attacks on the United States, in an attempt to distract from Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 US Presidential Elections.

Analysis

China has not interfered directly in national elections in the US but has attempted to exert influence through American corporations, university funding and Chinese-language media. The findings were contained in a report written by a group of China experts and released on Thursday. It comes after US president Donald Trump and vice-president Mike Pence claimed that Beijing would try to influence the midterm elections. Neither Mr Trump nor Mr Pence provided any evidence of covert interference.

The mere existence of the critical report reveals how far perceptions of China have shifted in the US, even among scholars who have traditionally favoured engagement, said the report’s co-ordinator, Orville Schell, director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society. “We’re in an inflection point that is having tremendous significance.”

The report does not criticise the US establishment directly. It focuses instead on Beijing’s efforts to monopolise messaging to the Chinese diaspora in the US, and influence comments by academics or foreign policy think-tanks through funding or by limiting access to travel visas. 

“China has not sought to interfere in a national election in the United States or to sow confusion or inflame polarisation in our democratic discourse the way Russia has done,” the report said. But, it added, “China does, in fact, exert influence on how at least some American companies and corporate executives interact with the American government”.

The report, “Chinese Influence & American Interests, Promoting Constructive Vigilance”, was co-sponsored by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the Asia Society, with participation by 32 academics or policy contributors from the US and seven other nations.

The report warned  of efforts by Beijing to potentially influence American opinion through donations by Chinese businessmen to cash-strapped US universities and campaign donations, which are legal if given by American citizens.

It specifically references donations by US-based executives of HNA Group, the struggling Chinese airline-to-finance conglomerate, to the congressional campaign of Greg Pence, Mr Pence’s brother.

Assessment

Our assessment is that China has avoided directly intervening in the election and instead chose to sway the more influential companies. We believe that although it is not entirely illegal, the massive influence of some American companies makes it the perfect conduit for China to manipulate the electoral process itself.