America pressurises NATO members

American believes that NATO members are not fully cognisant of increasing Russian threat in Europe. European powers, for their part, fear a new Cold War. 

Background

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. NATO- EU relations were institutionalised in 2001, to further the steps taken during the 1990s to promote greater European responsibility in defence matters. The 2002 NATO-EU Declaration on a European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) assured the EU access to NATO’s planning capabilities for the EU’s own military operations.   

In 2003, the so-called “Berlin Plus” arrangements set the basis for the Alliance to support EU-led operations in which NATO as a whole is not engaged. At the 2010 Lisbon Summit, the Allies underlined their determination to improve the NATO-EU strategic partnership. The 2010 Strategic Concept committed the Alliance to work more closely with other international organisations to prevent crises, manage conflicts and stabilise post-conflict situations. In Warsaw in July 2016, the two organisations outlined areas for strengthened cooperation in light of common challenges to the east and south, including countering hybrid threats, enhancing resilience, defence capacity building, cyber defence, maritime security, and exercises.

However, since President Trump’s ascent to office, US foreign policy has been unpredictable, including in regards to NATO. US allies in Europe are finding it increasingly difficult to steer through Mr. Trump’s policies while their own priorities are undermined. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned that “old pillars of reliability are crumbling,” in a veiled reference to the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the tariffs on EU metals exports. NATO has particularly faced ire from the Trump administration, especially over financial commitments made by member countries. 

Analysis

NATO celebrates its 70th year before talks in Washington D.C., between the 29-member alliance. However, hours before the celebrations began, Vice President Trump said, “Germany must do more. And we cannot ensure the defence of the West if our allies grown dependent on Russia.” He continued, “It is simply unacceptable for Europe’s largest economy to continue to ignore the threat of Russian aggression and neglect its own self-defence and out common defence.” The comments echo President Trump’s repeated grievance that members of NATO are not meeting a goal set by the alliance to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence. 

Last month, Germany had announced that its defence spending would slide to 1.25% in 2023, a huge difference from the promised target. Germany has repeatedly attempted to secure its energy future, and has continued with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would physically double the amount of gas it could import from Russia. The Trump administration has repeatedly warned that such a move would make Germany a “captive” of Russia. Germany, for its part, has made statements alluding to the nations' controversial history in terms of military spending, in addition to pointing out that sent the second most number of troops to Afghanistan and that its is currently constructing a new NATO command centre in Ulm.

The remarks come amongst increased scrutiny on NATO member, Turkey’s purchases of the American-manufactured F-35 fighter jet and the Russian-made S-400 missile defence system, which raised fears of Moscow gaining access to data that could hinder the activities of the US’s most advanced fighter jet. America has halted its delivery of the F-35 platform. 

For an increasingly protectionist and isolationist America, that is increasingly concerned with Russian geopolitical activity, NATO is likely to come under further scrutiny. The actions of European powers less concerned with American concerns than with securing their own strategic requirements will be at odds with an America that seeks to put itself first and foremost. NATO’s Secretary General, while addressing US Congress, voiced concerns over the potential for a new Cold War. The US position has already yielded an increase in NATO’s defence budget by US$ 100 billion between 2016 and 2020, a trend that is likely to continue so long as NATO’s primary mission continue to be upheld; to provide Europe with a collective security option against a belligerent Russia. 

Assessment

Our assessment is that America’s recent remarks voicing concerns over spending by European partners towards defence and Russian activity in the region is a part of President Trump’s ongoing stance towards NATO. We believe that this rhetoric is likely to continue to compel NATO members to consolidate their defences and take up the reins against the Russian threat. We believe that America is likely to step up pressure on NATO allies considered to be wayward powers in light of NATO’s original mission. 

Image Courtesy - MSgt. Matthew Millson [Public domain]